There is no greater sports betting event than the Super Bowl. There are near-endless opportunities, with over 1,000 options available for football fans all over the country.
Here are some of the best opportunities available this Sunday, with numerous other positive expected value bets highlighted in PFF’s best bets tool.
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Super Bowl WR/TE Player Props: Kadarius Toney, Dallas Goedert and a same-game parlay
- WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 2.5 receptions
Since joining the Chiefs, Toney has averaged 2.41 yards per route run and generated a 27% target share against zone coverage, second and first, respectively, among his teammates over that span. He trails only Travis Kelce in yards per route run.
Super Bowl RB Player Props: Miles Sanders, Jerick McKinnon and a same-game parlay
- RB Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles: Longest rush over 8.5 yards
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the league in perfectly blocked run rate, beating the next-closest team by more than five percentage points. There is no better offensive line when it comes to executing the run scheme and the individual assignments.
Super Bowl 57: Kansas City Chiefs-Philadelphia Eagles betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+105)
It’s time to press the most likely narrative. There might be a path to a Chiefs blowout if Jalen Hurts falls victim to the bright lights that have derailed other first-timers, but the majority of other bullish cases for the Chiefs involve Patrick Mahomes' brilliance.
Long-shot Super Bowl parlay bets: Chiefs lean on Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Eagles passing game dominates
The core angle and source of value here is that If we tallied up the totals of the Kansas City receiving props for the day (263 as of this writing), it would come up as 32 yards short of Patrick Mahomes‘ passing prop. If Mahomes is to hit his passing prop — as I think he might — this would mean there is a ton of value on one of his receivers to fly well above their receiving prop as the market tries to price in the uncertainty of the Chiefs and their hurt receivers.
Super Bowl same-game parlay picks: Take the Chiefs to abandon the run game, attack through the air
Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most quarterback scrambles and the fifth-most yards to scrambling quarterbacks this season, which plays right into the strength of Jalen Hurts, who has a terrific 83.0 PFF rush grade.
Best Super Bowl 57 NFL prop bets: Sky Moore, Kenneth Gainwell and Jerick McKinnon
- WR Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 7.5 receiving yards
Moore has been targeted on 23.9% of his pass routes since Week 11, which ranks second among their available wide receivers. His 1.39 yards per route run are also second among wide receivers on the team in that time.
NFL Betting 2023: Data-driven tackle and sack props for Super Bowl 57
- T.J. Edwards, Philadelphia Eagles: Under 8.5 tackles
Edwards hasn't produced as well during these playoffs due to coming off the field just slightly more than in the regular season, averaging 90% of Philadelphia's defensive snaps now compared to playing nearly 100% during the regular season. It isn’t massive, but it’s often the difference between one or two more tackles in the score sheet for a linebacker.
NFL Betting: Best Super Bowl anytime TD prop bets
- Travis Kelce: Anytime touchdown
Even with the shortest odds on the board, Kelce still carries tremendous value. He’s experienced an explosion in red-zone usage during the playoffs compared to prior weeks. Through two games, he’s seen seven targets, securing three for scores, both of which are categories he leads the NFL in this postseason.
Best QB props for Super Bowl 57: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes
- Patrick Mahomes: 300+ passing yards
PFF’s play-by-play simulation likes the Chiefs against the spread and also finds value in Patrick Mahomes to go over his passing yardage prop numbers. In some ways, the 10% chance of a Mahomes blowup spot seems slightly underpriced given our simulation’s mean expectation for how this game plays out. The modeling does have some bias toward quality quarterback play from a passing perspective, and it also minimizes the impact of quarterback rushing success, which is a big reason this approach is lower on the Eagles than the consensus market.
Best Bets for Super Bowl 57: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Kenneth Gainwell and more
- Patrick Mahomes: Over 2.5 touchdowns
PFF’s best bets tool gives Mahomes' over 2.5 passing touchdowns prop bet a second-ranked 23.8% edge. The bet is a recent addition to the tool’s top five, appearing one day after Mahomes (high-ankle sprain) started the week with a “full participant” practice designation.
Exotic prop bets for Super Bowl 57: Philadelphia Eagles to score before they punt and more
- Philadelphia Eagles to score before they punt
The Eagles have been one of the league's most dominant teams on scripted plays this season. They finished second to only the Detroit Lions in scripted drive quality and have scored on their opening drive 63% of the time.
Super Bowl 57 Leveraging Tails: Bet on the incomparable Patrick Mahomes against the Philadelphia Eagles
- Patrick Mahomes over 300 passing yards & Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are far superior when it comes to moving the ball on offense. However, the Philadelphia Eagles have the edge on defense. However, the gap between these two offenses is huge. The Chiefs are nearly one standard deviation better than the Eagles, and the gap between these two teams is the same as the gap between the Eagles and the league average.
NFL Betting: Top mismatches to bet in Super Bowl 57
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: Anytime touchdown
It shouldn't be a surprise that one of the season's top touchdown scorers has less-than-ideal odds to score in this game, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth attacking or adding to a parlay. With 15 touchdowns on the season, including one in each of his playoff games this year, Hurts should have a decent shot to add another this weekend.
Super Bowl spreads, totals, props to bet before lines move
- Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles: 70+ alt receiving yards
The Chiefs have been surprisingly stout in coverage this season, ranking fourth as a unit in PFF coverage grade, but things change dramatically when a tight end is targeted, as they move to 16th against the position. They have been incredibly susceptible to throws within the hashes, where Dallas Goedert has made his living this season.
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