Betting News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Super Bowl same-game parlay picks: Take the Chiefs to abandon the run game, attack through the air

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) takes the field prior to a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

• Chiefs should lean on passing game: The Eagles' run defense, and Kansas City's uncertain running back room, should make it so the Chiefs try to win through the air.

• Look for Jalen Hurts to utilize his legs: Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most quarterback scrambles and the fifth-most yards to scrambling quarterbacks this season.

Estimated Reading Time: 3 mins

Story: Kansas City Chiefs win through the air with limited efficiency from their run game

Kansas City is the pass-heaviest team in the NFL, opting to throw way above expectation. And we talked in Leveraging Tails about why Patrick Mahomes is a good bet to have success in this matchup: Volume plus the fact that Mahomes always offers upside for a big passing day. 

While we don’t want to put too much stock in on-off splits, it is also important to note that the Eagles' run defense has been stout since Jordan Davis returned from injury in Week 12. The defense has the seventh-best rush EPA and rush success rate allowed. This could mean a slow day for the Chiefs' rushing attack, pushing them further to utilize the passing game.

Free for 7-days. Subscribe to continue reading and unlock

All premium content with the best insights + analysis in the game
NFL Draft Guide, Big Board + Mock Draft Sim
Fantasy Draft Kit and Nathan Jahnke's award winning rankings
Bet smarter with PFF player mismatches and expert betting insights
NFL and CFB player grades and premium stats
Unlock all PFF data trusted by all 32 NFL teams

Already have a subscription? Log In

Betting Featured Tools

  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS.

$9.99 / mo
$79.99 / yr