Early 2023 NFL roster rankings for all 32 teams: Strengths, weaknesses, rookies to watch and more

With NFL free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft behind us, we have a clear idea of what most teams' rosters will look like heading into the 2023 NFL season. There could still be some surprise trades or free-agent signings looming, of course.

Let’s take a look at where all 32 teams stand on paper heading into the 2023 season.

JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

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1. Philadelphia Eagles

Biggest strength in 2023: Trench play

The Eagles led the league in pass protection and pass-rush grade in 2022, making life easier for everyone around them. Their offensive line allowed Jalen Hurts to become an MVP-caliber dual threat. Their defense finished with the third-most sacks in NFL history during the regular season. Their units up front are loaded with stars, including Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Haason Reddick and Brandon Graham. While Javon Hargrave is a big loss on the defensive interior, they had Jalen Carter fall into their laps in the draft. The Eagles’ offensive and defensive lines will keep them competitive despite departures elsewhere.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Coverage between the numbers

There weren’t many consistent weaknesses for the Eagles in 2022, but one theme when they struggled was their middle-of-the-field defenders being exposed in big spots. The Super Bowl was a microcosm of this, as the Chiefs picked on Philly’s linebackers, as well as Avonte Maddox in the slot. T.J. Edwards, the best player among the group, departed along with Kyzir White and safeties Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps. The Eagles have some holes to fill over the middle.

X-Factor for 2023: S Reed Blankenship

Following up on the aforementioned holes over the middle, Blankenship enters 2023 with a great opportunity to start after a surprising rookie year in which he finished with a 79.4 overall grade. He earned an 89.4 run-defense grade, fourth best among qualified safeties, and made some plays in coverage — including an interception of Aaron Rodgers. The Eagles will still have an elite pass rush and excellent outside cornerback play. They need Blankenship to be the glue in the middle.

Rookie to watch: DI Jalen Carter

Carter was arguably the best player in the draft, and the Eagles secured his services with the ninth overall pick. He could not have landed in a better place. It's a perfect succession plan for Fletcher Cox talent-wise. Aaron Donald was the last defensive tackle to win Rookie of the Year, when he did so in 2014. Carter is a good bet to do so in a defense perfectly suited for him.

Over/Under 10.5 win total: Over

Super Bowl hangovers can be real, but the Eagles have the best quarterback in the NFC. They boast dynamic weapons on offense. Nobody in the league is better in the trenches. There are sore spots in the middle of their defense, but they have a strong chance to get back to the Super Bowl.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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2. San Francisco 49ers

Biggest strength in 2023: Playmakers

It’s a shame the 49ers’ quarterback room was ravaged by injuries because they may have been the most well-rounded team in 2022. Offensively, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk thrived no matter who was under center. 49ers pass catchers led the league in missed tackles forced and ranked fifth in the regular season in yards after catch despite seeing the seventh-fewest targets. Defensively, Fred Warner, Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga return for the highest-graded coverage unit in the NFL, one that also led the league in interceptions.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Interior Depth

It's hard to find weaknesses on this team, but the 49ers' interior defensive line struggled all year, and it came to a head when the Eagles ran all over them in the NFC title game. Arik Armstead had a down year, and Javon Kinlaw hasn’t lived up to his first-round billing yet. The 49ers ended 2022 with the third-lowest-graded interior defender unit in the NFL. They’re hoping big-money free agent Javon Hargrave fixes those issues, but there still isn’t much behind him. Hargrave’s high overall grade is also primarily carried by his pass rushing.

X-Factor for 2023: T Colton McKivitz

The 49ers ranked 10th in the league in run blocking last season. It was their lowest ranking since Kyle Shanahan has been head coach. Longtime right tackle Mike McGlinchey departed for Denver in free agency, leaving the lightly experienced McKivitz an opportunity to take the job. He carries a career 56.4 overall grade on just 446 career snaps. He’s been in the system for three years, so there shouldn’t be any learning curve. The offensive line is still the engine of this team, but there are some major uncertainties outside of Trent Williams.

Rookie to watch: S Ji’Ayir Brown

Brown is an aggressive, hard-hitting playmaker who just needs an injection of discipline into his game. The 49ers are in need of some playmaking in the box and the slot after losing Jimmie Ward and Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency. Brown can thump in the run game and notched 10 interceptions across his last two years at Penn State.

Over/Under 11.5 win total: Over

The 49ers are loaded. They went 6-0 against their division last year and could do so again this year. A 6-5 record against the rest of their schedule shouldn’t be too hard, as long as somebody is healthy at quarterback. The 49ers are one of the two best teams in the NFC, and at least twelve wins should be the expectation.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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3. Cincinnati Bengals

Biggest strength in 2023: Passing Game

There may not be a better receiver room in the NFL for 2023 than that of the Cincinnati Bengals, featuring the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd catching passes from PFF’s highest-graded passer in Joe Burrow. Adding tight end Irv Smith Jr. into the mix should keep the Bengals among the top passing teams in football.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Safety

Cincinnati lost both starting safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell to free agency this past offseason. Replacing them are 2022 first-rounder Daxton Hill and former Rams safety Nick Scott, as well as 2023 third-rounder Jordan Battle. All three safeties are currently unproven commodities, which could lead to some big plays for opposing offenses.

X-Factor for 2023: Offensive Line as a Unit

Despite spending a lot of money on the offensive line in the 2022 offseason, the Bengals hardly improved as a unit. This offseason, they added Super Bowl champion Orlando Brown Jr. to man the blind side. While Joe Burrow does thrive in the quick passing game, being able to give him more time to dissect opposing defenses could make an already dangerous passing attack unstoppable.

Rookie to watch: RB Chase Brown

Given his tumultuous offseason, it’s unclear if Joe Mixon will be on the Bengals' roster come opening day. On top of that, backup Samaje Perine signed with the Broncos in the offseason, leaving an opportunity for snaps in Cincinnati's backfield wide open. The Bengals selected former Illinois running back Chase Brown in the fifth round, and given that his competition for snaps is currently Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams, he may be in line for a big role in this offense.

Over/Under 11.5 win total: Over

This Bengals' roster is one of the more complete ones in the league. Barring anything unforeseen, they should be among the favorites to appear in Super Bowl 58.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

4. Kansas City Chiefs

Biggest strength in 2023: Patrick Mahomes

No matter who Mahomes has as pass-catching options, he always seems to make it work. This was no truer than in 2022. Despite losing top receiver Tyreek Hill in a trade with the Dolphins, Mahomes still put up an MVP season and won his second Super Bowl.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Wide Receiver

The Chiefs were already thin at wide receiver heading into the offseason, and now they’ve lost JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency. For now, their top receiver is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. However, they do have several potential breakout candidates, such as Skyy Moore and Justyn Ross.

X-Factor for 2023: WR Kadarius Toney

Acquired in a midseason trade with the Giants, Toney showed flashes of the kind of playmaker he can be in the Chiefs' offense. A full season in Andy Reid’s system should do wonders for the speedster.

Rookie to watch: WR Rashee Rice

The Chiefs traded up in the second round for the former SMU standout, who put up big numbers in his last season with the Mustangs. Given the Chiefs' lack of depth at receiver, Rice will get plenty of deep looks.

Over/Under 11.5 win total: Over

Despite some of Kansas City's holes on offense, Patrick Mahomes is the great equalizer. This Chiefs team should remain favorites to win the AFC for the fourth time under this regime.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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5. Buffalo Bills

Biggest strength in 2023: QB Josh Allen

There isn’t a more do-it-all quarterback in the league right now than Josh Allen. In 2022, he accounted for 46 total touchdowns (38 in the air and eight on the ground) while also putting up the third-highest passing grade (85.8) and highest rushing grade (92.8) among quarterbacks.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Receiver depth

Outside of Stefon Diggs, there aren’t too many pass catchers on the roster that strike fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators. Gabriel Davis will have the occasional big game, but he isn’t much of a volume guy, as his single-game high for receptions in 2022 was six, which he accomplished twice.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Josh Allen

While Allen is as explosive as they come at quarterback, his play style can be a rollercoaster, as his 33 turnover-worthy plays were the most in the NFL. If Allen can bring that number down a bit, we’re looking at one of the most dangerous offenses in football.

Rookie to watch: TE Dalton Kincaid

Despite not drafting a receiver until the fifth round, the Bills managed to snag arguably the 2023 draft’s best pass catcher — regardless of position — in former Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick. Buffalo may run more 12 personnel with Kincaid alongside the incumbent Dawson Knox in order to get the best group of pass catchers on the field.

Over/Under 10.5 win total: Over

It’s going to be difficult to repeat in the competitive AFC East, but Buffalo has come out on top in this division three years in a row. As long as Josh Allen is under center, the Bills should remain the favorites in 2023.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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6. Dallas Cowboys

Biggest strength in 2023: Pass Rush

Dallas finished last year second in team pass-rush grade behind Philadelphia. Headlined by Micah Parsons, the Cowboys’ pass rush was lethal when they pulled ahead in games. Parsons himself ended the year with a 92.0 pass-rush grade, fourth best of any player in the NFL, and recorded a 90.0-plus pass-rush grade in five games. This unit figures to carry a solid defense again in 2023.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Quarterback Play

Dak Prescott suffered through arguably his worst season as a pro in 2022. He led the league in interceptions despite missing five games with injury. He posted a mediocre 68.2 passing grade for the year and made more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. Prescott was inconsistent when he was healthy outside of two excellent performances against overmatched Chicago and Tampa Bay teams. Dallas was short on weapons last year, but Prescott needs to be better if the team is going to make a championship run in 2023.

X-Factor for 2023: WR Brandin Cooks

Part of Prescott’s struggles can be attributed to a lack of depth in the Cowboys’ receiving corps. CeeDee Lamb (87.0 receiving grade) is excellent, but no other wide receiver on the roster graded above 70.0. Cooks adds a ton of experience to the group and is a vertical threat. If he can stretch the field and allow Lamb to work his magic underneath, Dallas’ passing game gets a lot more dangerous.

Rookie to watch: DI Mazi Smith

Smith is an athletic freak with big potential to help a vulnerable run defense. Dallas’ interior defensive linemen ranked 27th in run-defense grade in 2022. They need to tighten up in the run game if they hope to beat teams like the Eagles and 49ers, who figure to be their primary roadblocks to an NFC title. Smith will be at the forefront of that improvement,

Over/Under 9.5 win total: Over

There’s some risk here with what we saw from Dak Prescott last year, but 10 wins is still a good bet. Dallas won 12 last year and has added Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. There are several soft spots in their schedule as long as Prescott doesn’t crash. Contests against the Jets, Lions and Chargers loom large, but Dallas should get to 10 wins.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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7. New York Jets

Biggest strength in 2023: Pass Rush

While the focus has been their revamped offense, the Jets’ defense is already an elite group led by a deep and ferocious pass rush. Head coach Robert Saleh likes to rush four and generally prefers not to blitz. He has a deep group up front that includes Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, Carl Lawson, Bryce Huff, Jermaine Johnson, Micheal Clemons and rookie Will McDonald IV. This will be a fearsome unit, especially when the Jets are playing from ahead.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive Line

The Jets were an injury-riddled mess up front last year, especially after Alijah Vera-Tucker was lost for the season in Week 7. They were denied a first-round tackle in the draft and are now left with a group consisting of the oft-injured Mekhi Becton, 40-year-old Duane Brown, 2022 fourth-rounder Max Mitchell and, possibly, Vera-Tucker. They also need a bounce-back season from left guard Laken Tomlinson, who earned just a 56.8 overall grade last season.

X-Factor for 2023: T Mekhi Becton

General manager Joe Douglas’ first draft pick may be the most important player on the team this year. He has all the size and talent you could ask for in a left tackle and showed flashes of it during his rookie year in 2020 (74.4 overall grade). He just hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the past two years. Becton has one more chance to prove he’s a franchise tackle. If he does, he will greatly raise the ceiling of the Jets’ offense.

Rookie to watch: C Joe Tippmann

Tippmann has a good chance to start as a rookie, providing the Jets great flexibility with guys like Connor McGovern, Wes Schweitzer and Vera-Tucker when filling out the rest of their line. Tippmann is an athletic freak with Pro Bowl potential. His development would be a boon to the rest of the unit.

Over/Under 9.5 win total: Over

The Jets won seven games last year with terrible quarterback play and were a few last-minute losses from 10 victories. They now have a future Hall of Famer at quarterback, a legitimate star at receiver in Garrett Wilson and a top-five defense. Anything less than 10 wins and a playoff appearance would be a massive disappointment.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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8. Baltimore Ravens

Biggest strength in 2023: Ground game

Retaining Lamar Jackson was huge for this Ravens offense as they continue to boast one of the game’s top rushing attacks. Not only is Jackson among the best running quarterbacks in football, but the team is also deep at the running back position with the likes of J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill set to return in 2023.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Pass Rush

The only returning Ravens defensive linemen to record a 70.0-plus pass-rush grade last season are David Ojabo and Michael Pierce, neither of whom reached 100 total snaps due to injury. The Ravens are banking on developmental players like Ojabo and 2021 first-rounder Odafe Oweh to take big leaps forward in 2023.

X-Factor for 2023: WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Having had a full season to recover from a torn ACL suffered in Super Bowl 56, Beckham looks to become the first true No. 1 receiving threat for Lamar Jackson. That being said, the 30-year-old Beckham hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since Week 6 of 2019, so it’s fair to wonder if his best years are behind him.

Rookie to watch: WR Zay Flowers

The 22nd pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Flowers may be undersized but brings a lot of speed and elusiveness to the Ravens’ receiver room, something that’s been missing since the team traded Hollywood Brown to the Cardinals.

Over/Under 8.5 win total: Over

With Lamar Jackson back in the fold, the Ravens will once again have one of the most dynamic offenses in the game. And with a full season of Roquan Smith on the defensive side of the ball, yards will be hard to come by against the team.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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9. Los Angeles Chargers

Biggest strength in 2023: Passing Game

Not only does Justin Herbert have the likes of Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler to throw to, but the team found a way to keep Keenan Allen and add Quentin Johnston in the draft. With so many weapons on offense and the addition of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator, the Chargers will field a dangerous passing attack.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Secondary

Top free-agent signing JC Jackson struggled mightily in 2022 before an injury derailed his campaign, and free safety Nasir Adderley abruptly retired at the age of 25. As things stand, three of the five projected starters in the Chargers' secondary failed to record grades of at least 60.0 in 2022.

X-Factor for 2023: CB JC Jackson

It’s unlikely that Jackson puts up another 28.4 season-long grade like he did in 2022. The former Patriots standout is going to be relied upon heavily to regain the form that earned him an $82.5 million contract. And if he does, the Chargers will have an elite cornerback duo with him alongside Asante Samuel Jr.

Rookie to watch: WR Quentin Johnston

Johnston was the star of a loaded receiver room at TCU, and he’ll now be receiving targets alongside Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler from Justin Herbert. Johnston is a good after-the-catch receiver, especially for his size, and should give opposing defenses headaches.

Over/Under 9.5 win total: Over

There are too many threats on this offense for the Chargers not to be one of the top teams in the AFC. The main question is going to be whether the secondary can hold up.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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10. Miami Dolphins

Biggest strength in 2023: Wide Receiver

There might not be a better receiving duo in the league than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Last season, both receivers went over 1,400 yards receiving and at least seven touchdowns while sporting 80.0-plus receiving grades.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive Line

The Dolphins’ offensive line was a mess in 2022, earning a combined 59.3 pass-blocking grade as a unit — the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. And they haven’t done much in the offseason to improve upon it. A healthy Terron Armstead should boost that number, but it’s a primary concern heading into 2023.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa took a massive leap forward in year three, seeing his passing grade go up from an uninspiring 67.3 to an impressive 81.4 between 2021 and 2022. The problem has been injuries, as he got knocked out of games on multiple occasions, and the Dolphins’ offense suffered mightily as a result.

Rookie to watch: RB Devon Achane

The Dolphins made only four picks in the 2023 draft, the most interesting being speedster Devon Achane out of Texas A&M. With two of the fastest receivers in the game on top of a running back who ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, the Dolphins could turn their games into track meets.

Over/Under 9.5 win total: Over

With a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, this Dolphins team has the roster to make a deep playoff run. However, their quarterback’s health remains the biggest question mark and could also be what keeps them out of the playoffs altogether.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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11. Seattle Seahawks

Biggest strength in 2023: Vertical Passing

Geno Smith was the NFL’s premier deep passer in 2022, carrying a 99.2 passing grade on 20-plus yards throws. He made 32 big-time throws to just seven turnover-worthy plays on deep balls. Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Marquise Goodwin all finished with 95.0-plus receiving grades on deep balls, as well. This was a big-play offense that now adds dynamic rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba and is supplemented by a healthy Kenneth Walker III. This could be a really dangerous offense again in 2023 if Smith keeps the momentum going.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Run Defense

Most of Seattle’s poor efforts on defense came against run-heavy teams. Their defense was overmatched three times against the 49ers, as well as in games against the Raiders and Falcons. They even allowed 161 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers’ feeble attack. Reuniting with Bobby Wagner should be a massive boon to a front seven that was too often gashed last year.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Geno Smith

The Comeback Player of the Year had an excellent 2022, but there are signs that regression could be coming. It’s challenging to repeat outlier-level deep ball performance year over year. The Seahawks should lean more on the run game and easier throws if they want to improve on last season’s success. Smith will also have to be more consistent. His passing grade in Weeks 1-8 last season was 84.4, third best in the NFL, but that number dropped to 64.0 in his last 10 games.

Rookie to watch: CB Devon Witherspoon

The fifth pick in the draft creates a potentially fearsome duo with Tariq Woolen. Woolen led the league with six interceptions last year. Witherspoon brings rare aggression on the outside and fits seamlessly into a defense that generally operates with one high safety. Witherspoon’s excellence in man coverage was nearly unmatched in this draft class. Seattle could have the best pair of cornerbacks in football very soon.

Over/Under 8.5 win total: Over

The gap will widen between the haves and have-nots in the NFC West. Seattle had an excellent offseason. The rookie class and Bobby Wagner fit in seamlessly. They should secure four wins against the Cardinals and Rams. They don’t match up well with the 49ers and Geno Smith may regress a bit, but there’s enough talent here to post a winning record and contend for a wild-card berth.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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12. Pittsburgh Steelers

Biggest strength in 2023: Pass Rush

T.J. Watt missed most of 2022 after tearing his pectoral in Week 1. The 2021 Defensive Player of the Year should be back fully healthy in 2023 alongside the always-improving Alex Highsmith to form one of the most impressive pass-rush duos in the league.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Cornerback
As it stands, the best cornerback on this defense is 33-year-old Patrick Peterson. The Steelers did address the position twice in the draft with Joey Porter Jr. and Cory Trice Jr., but expect some growing pains in 2023.

X-Factor for 2023: WR George Pickens

Pickens showed flashes as a second-round rookie in 2022, catching 52 passes for 801 yards and 4 touchdowns to go along with a 69.3 receiving grade. The 22-year-old will have every opportunity to take over as the team’s No. 1 receiving threat and make second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett’s life easier in 2023.

Rookie to watch: CB Joey Porter Jr.

Cornerback is a weak spot on this team, so Porter is likely to see the field sooner rather than later. The former Penn State cornerback's press-man abilities should make him an interesting option opposite Peterson.

Over/Under 8.5 win total: Under

The Steelers have never had a losing record under Mike Tomlin, but given how strong the AFC North is expected to be and a lack of high-end talent, that streak could end in 2023.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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13. Detroit Lions

Biggest strength in 2023: Pass Rush

The Lions got 17.5 sacks between rookies Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston IV, the latter of which played only seven games. A full season of that duo, on top of production from John Cominsky, Julian Okwara and Josh Paschal, can create a lot of problems for opposing quarterbacks.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Receiver depth

After Amon-Ra St. Brown, the most receiving yards among returning Lions is Kalif Raymond’s 616. St. Brown will continue to be the focal point of the offense, but there are a lot of question marks for the rest of this group.

X-Factor for 2023: WR Jameson Williams

Having played only six games as a rookie due to injury, Williams was slated for a bigger role in 2023 before he was suspended six games for gambling. However, because of the lack of receiving depth on the roster, Williams will have every opportunity to become a major contributor upon his return.

Rookie to watch: RB Jahmyr Gibbs

The Lions shocked everyone by taking a running back with the 12th overall selection despite already having David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift on the roster. They traded Swift to the Eagles shortly after, opening up the role of receiving back for the former Alabama speedster.

Over/Under 9 win total: Under

This is a difficult team to project because of how much they overachieved in 2022 and the ever-changing NFC North landscape. But given how little the team improved on the offensive side of the ball in the offseason, expect some regression in 2023.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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14. Cleveland Browns

Biggest strength in 2023: Offensive Line

For the past decade or so, the Browns have boasted one of the top offensive lines in football, and 2023 should be no different. There may not be a better guard tandem than Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller, while center Ethan Pocic had a breakout 2022 season, his first in Cleveland after five underwhelming years in Seattle.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Defensive Line

Aside from Myles Garrett and Dalvin Tomlinson, there isn’t a ton of depth on the Browns’ defensive line following Jadeveon Clowney‘s departure. The Browns will look for players like Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and rookies Isaiah McGuire and Siaki Ika to step up and take some of the pressure off their star defenders.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Deshaun Watson

Upon returning from suspension in Week 11, Deshaun Watson looked every bit like a guy who hadn’t played a football game in more than 700 days. If he can shake off the rust and return to the form that made him one of the highest-paid players in the NFL, the Browns could quickly become one of the most dangerous teams in the league.

Rookie to watch: WR Cedric Tillman

Despite not having a pick in the first two rounds thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade, the Browns landed a potential steal with the 74th overall pick in former Tennessee receiver Cedric Tillman. He went a little under the radar due to injury and a breakout season from teammate Jalin Hyatt, but given the questionable depth following Amari Cooper at receiver, Tillman could be poised for a big rookie season.

Over/Under 8.5 win total: Under

With the uncertainty surrounding Watson’s potential return to form and a lack of depth at key positions, the Browns will find it difficult to come out on top of what is expected to be a tough AFC North.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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15. Jacksonville Jaguars

Biggest strength in 2023: Passing Game

Trevor Lawrence took a huge step forward in year two under new head coach Doug Pederson, as the Jaguars were surprise division winners in 2022, headlined by a miraculous, come-from-behind win over the Chargers in the wild-card round. Now, Lawrence has more weapons after the addition of former Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley. The sky's the limit for this offense.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive Line

The Jaguars' offensive line is already a weak unit, as only Brandon Scherff has a history of success in the NFL, and they are losing starting left tackle Cam Robinson for an unknown number of games as of this writing due to suspension. Trevor Lawrence earned just a 29.5 passing grade under pressure in 2022, so protecting him is a must if the team hopes to build on a breakout year.

X-Factor for 2023: EDGE Travon Walker

The 2022 first overall pick had a quiet rookie season despite Jacksonville’s success. With Josh Allen’s potential free agency looming, the Jaguars will need Walker to step up in year two.

Rookie to watch: OT Anton Harrison

There’s bad timing, and then there’s finding out on the day of the draft that your starting left tackle is getting suspended. Cam Robinson’s suspension potentially altered Jacksonville’s draft day plans, as they had to address the unit perhaps sooner than they wanted to. The Jaguars traded down twice and landed Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison with the 27th pick. Harrison will likely pair with Walker Little while Robinson serves his suspension, and it may be an opportunity for the former Sooner to entrench himself at one of the tackle spots.

Over/Under 9.5 win total: Over

With the addition of Calvin Ridley and Trevor Lawrence’s continued improvement in a weak AFC South, the Jaguars ought to be favored to repeat as division champions, something they haven’t done since they won back-to-back AFC Central titles (a division that no longer exists) from 1998-99.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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16. Minnesota Vikings

Biggest strength in 2023: Passing game

Kirk Cousins and company were often left to carry the load in shootouts last season. The Vikings had unprecedented success in close games. Cousins was solid with a 77.7 passing grade on the year. Justin Jefferson is arguably the best receiver in the game. K.J. Osborn, T.J. Hockenson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook all made their usual contributions to the passing game. Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill were two of the best pass blockers at their respective tackle positions. This unit is the primary reason Minnesota won the NFC North in 2022.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Coverage

The Vikings allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL last season. Patrick Peterson and Duke Shelley were the only players on the team to play at least 200 coverage snaps and earn at least a 70.0 coverage grade. The Vikings' deficiencies in coverage were eventually their undoing, as Daniel Jones played a terrific game against them in the playoffs. Minnesota has a ton of work to do to fix this unit, since the aforementioned Peterson and Shelley have since departed.

X-Factor for 2023: CB Byron Murphy Jr.

The former Arizona Cardinal. looks to bring some stability to a Minnesota secondary that desperately needs it. Murphy posted a career-high 66.7 overall grade last season before missing the last nine weeks with a back injury. If healthy, he is a good fit for a zone-heavy defense that needs a leader on the back end.

Rookie to watch: WR Jordan Addison

K.J. Osborn is a good player but profiles better as a third option. Addison, the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner, brings talent that should make him an excellent second fiddle to Jefferson. He’s an excellent route runner with the versatility to play inside or outside. A Rookie of the Year-type season would decrease the number of double teams on Jefferson and make Minnesota’s offense very dangerous.

Over/Under 8.5 win total: Over

Minnesota won’t win 13 games again. However, a team with Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison should still finish above .500. Their defense may be a huge liability. They likely need to finish 4-2 in the NFC North and at least 3-1 against the NFC South. Grind out a couple more wins after that, and you have nine — a reasonable expectation.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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17. Washington Commanders

Biggest strength in 2023: Coverage

Washington’s secondary kept the team in most games despite the offense's struggles in 2022. Kamren Curl finished last year with the second-best overall grade among qualified safeties, leading a unit that allowed 30 points only twice all season. The coverage unit held up its end of the bargain, and the addition of first-round rookie Emmanuel Forbes adds another ball hawk to an already solid unit.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Quarterback play

The combination of Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke simply didn’t cut it in 2022. Sam Howell played a decent Week 18 game against the Cowboys, but the uncertainty at quarterback in Washington feels perpetual at this point. They finished with the third-worst passing grade in the NFL last year and come into 2023 on similarly shaky ground. The incumbent Howell will be joined by journeyman Jacoby Brissett. Despite a solid set of weaponry, the quarterback spot may be the Commanders’ undoing again.

X-Factor for 2023: Edge Chase Young

Coming into the NFL with huge expectations, Young mostly fulfilled them during his 2020 rookie season with a terrific 87.1 overall grade. He tore his ACL in Week 10 of 2021, though, returning to play the final three games of this past season. Washington curiously declined his fifth-year option, so Young is entering a contract year. He has elite talent, and the Commanders’ success will be carried by their defense. A double-digit sack performance could make them an elite unit — and could line up Young for a big payday.

Rookie to watch: CB Emmanuel Forbes

The Commanders have the talent to be a top-flight defense in 2023. If there is a gripe with their highly graded secondary, it’s that they reeled in just 10 interceptions last year (Jonathan Allen also had one). Forbes, the FBS record holder with six career pick-sixes, figures to add a playmaking element to an already solid group. The Commanders would like to give their offense short fields to work with, and Forbes could immediately contribute to that cause.

Over/Under 6.5 win total: Under

There’s a lot to like about Washington’s roster. They have everything you need to be a playoff team … except the quarterback. They won’t carry the advantage in that department most weeks with Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett. They play 10 games against 2022 playoff teams, plus tough road games against the Jets, Patriots and Broncos. It’ll be tough to scratch out low-scoring wins week to week.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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18. New England Patriots

Biggest strength in 2023: Defense

With the exception of recently retired Devin McCourty, the Patriots return everybody from a 2022 defense that scored seven touchdowns, intercepted 19 passes and registered 41 sacks. Not only that, but each of New England’s top three draft picks targeted defensive positions.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Wide Receiver

The Patriots lack a receiving threat that keeps defensive coordinators up at night. They replaced Jakobi Meyers with JuJu Smith-Schuster in the offseason, but aside from some late-round fliers in the draft, they didn’t do much to improve an underwhelming group this offseason.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Mac Jones

Mac Jones struggled in 2022 to the point where some fans were clamoring for rookie fourth-rounder Bailey Zappe to fully take over. Jones will be learning his third offense in three years, so it’s unclear which version of the former Heisman runner-up we’re going to see.

Rookie to watch: WR Kayshon Boutte

Before the season, Kayshon Boutte was considered the top receiving prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, an ankle injury and an inability to gell into new head coach Brian Kelly’s system led to the LSU product falling to the sixth round. Playing in as thin a receiving room as New England’s, Boutte may have an opportunity to see the field sooner rather than later.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Over

The Patriots won eight games in 2022 despite an offensive system that was openly mocked by an opposing defensive coordinator. With Bill O’Brien at the helm, expect a much more efficient product in what is expected to be a very competitive AFC East.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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19. New Orleans Saints

Biggest strength in 2023: Passing Offense

Andy Dalton shockingly finished 2022 with an 81.0 passing grade, sixth best in the NFL. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed look like foundational pieces moving forward, as well. The Saints' offense looked much better than expected given that Dalton wasn’t the starter to open the season and Michael Thomas appeared in only three games, and they were in the NFC South race through Week 17 — primarily due to Dalton’s effort. If Derek Carr can post similar numbers, New Orleans should have the best offense in the NFC South in 2023.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive and Defensive Lines

The Saints ranked 26th in both pass-blocking and run-blocking grades. The defensive line graded out as the fourth-worst pass-rushing unit in the NFL. For years, the Saints were loaded with talent up front on both sides of the ball. That talent has slowly eroded away. Age has started to catch up with a few guys (Cam Jordan, Andrus Peat), while younger players (Trevor Penning, Cesar Ruiz) need to step up.

X-Factor for 2023: T Trevor Penning

The jury is still out on Penning after he played just 124 snaps in his rookie season. He showed flashes of his natural aggressiveness, posting an 80.2 run-blocking grade. His 38.7 pass-blocking grade is ugly, but it rises to 56.2 if you discard an ugly first appearance against San Francisco. Penning has talent and could change the look of this offensive line if he holds up well in pass protection. He’ll have to compete with James Hurst (63.2 overall), but the opportunity is there for the taking.

Rookie to watch: Bryan Bresee

New Orleans’ first-round pick is the most talented defensive tackle on the team's roster. A generational recruit at Clemson, Bresee never quite lived up to the hype. He needs some refinement to his technique and better health moving forward. However, he has the physical skills to be a foundational piece inside for the Saints.

Over/Under 9.5 win total: Under

The Saints have major issues in the trenches, and Derek Carr has a mediocre grading profile over the past year and a half. Is the switch from Andy Dalton to Carr worth three wins? Will Alvin Kamara be suspended to start the season? Can Michael Thomas stay on the field? The Saints are closer to the Falcons’ talent level than many think. The division will likely be won with eight or nine wins. It's hard to see any team winning 10.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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20. Denver Broncos

Biggest strength in 2023: Receiver depth

Already boasting depth at the position, the Broncos used their top pick in 2023 on Oklahoma’s Marvin Mims, pairing him with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Marquez Callaway. There will be no shortage of targets for Russell Wilson to throw to.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Pass Rush

In 2022, the Broncos put up the sixth-worst pass-rush grade (66.4) and did very little, if anything, to improve on it in the offseason. The only pass rusher to post a 70.0-plus grade and is returning from last season was Randy Gregory, who notched a 76.2 pass-rush grade on just 114 pass-rush snaps. Zach Allen was added from Arizona in free agency, but there isn’t a whole lot else to be excited about.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Russell Wilson

This might be the biggest X-factor in all of football heading into 2023. After a massive trade to secure his services, Russell Wilson couldn’t seem to make things work in Denver in 2022. However, with new head coach Sean Payton coming out of retirement, Wilson will get a fresh start and look to bounce back.

Rookie to watch: CB Riley Moss

Patrick Surtain II is one of the top young cornerbacks in football, but outside of him are a lot of unproven commodities. After being selected in the third round, Iowa ball hawk Riley Moss will compete for snaps opposite Surtain and could make some noise on this defense.

Over/Under 8.5 win total: Under

If Russell Wilson can bounce back from an underwhelming 2022, this Broncos team has the talent to compete with just about anyone in the AFC. If he can’t, expect another long season in Denver.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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21. Las Vegas Raiders

Biggest strength in 2023: Pass catchers

With free-agent signing Jakobi Meyers joining Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow, this receiver room suddenly becomes very potent. Despite trading Darren Waller to the Giants, the Raiders were able to replace him with Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer, considered one of the best tight ends in a deep 2023 draft class, to go along with Austin Hooper.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Defense

Outside of Maxx Crosby and the defensive line, the Raiders' defense lacks any real difference-makers. Chandler Jones is 33 and coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro, while the back seven lacks impact playmakers.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Jimmy Garoppolo

With the group of pass catchers assembled in Las Vegas, the only thing stopping this offense from being a top-tier unit is the quarterback. Garoppolo has shown in the past he is capable of leading teams on deep playoff runs, but he’s typically had a stronger supporting cast than what he’s going to get with the Raiders. He’ll be reuniting with Josh McDaniels, his former offensive coordinator in New England, which should ease the transition.

Rookie to watch: EDGE Tyree Wilson

The Raiders took Tyree Wilson with the seventh overall pick in the draft despite defensive playmakers such as Jalen Carter and Christian Gonzalez still being available. While Wilson has eye-popping physical traits, his production at Texas Tech suggests he still has more development ahead of him.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Under

After letting Derek Carr go, the Raiders are taking a risk on Garoppolo being the difference-maker he couldn’t quite become in San Francisco. However, even if Garoppolo puts up a career year, this defense will keep the Raiders from doing more than sniffing a wild-card spot.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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22. Chicago Bears

Biggest strength in 2023: Run game

Not much went right for Chicago in 2022, but it is very clear that the foundation of their rebuild will be their rushing attack. Justin Fields, David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert combined for more than 2,500 rushing yards. Fields’ 91.5 rushing grade was tied for fourth in the NFL, regardless of position. Montgomery is off to Detroit, but D’Onta Foreman arrives to complement Herbert. This team will be built on power-running and play-action shots down the field.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Run Defense

The Bears gave up the second-most rushing yards in the league last season. That matches their 31st-ranked team run-defense grade, both marks finishing only ahead of Houston. Their front seven simply lacked starting-caliber talent last season, especially after the team traded Roquan Smith. The Bears hope some new additions, primarily at linebacker, bring better results up front. The defensive line currently looks like the weakest unit on the team.

X-Factor for 2023: WR Chase Claypool

The Bears swiped D.J. Moore from the Panthers, and Darnell Mooney is very good when healthy. They sent a high second-round pick to Pittsburgh for Claypool midseason, and so far it has not paid dividends. Midseason arrivals are tough, but Claypool managed just 140 yards in seven games for Chicago. Justin Fields is a deep-ball specialist, and Claypool has the requisite size and speed to excel vertically.

Rookie to watch: RB Roschon Johnson

There are a ton of choices here amid Chicago’s huge draft class. Johnson is a terrific fit for their offense. The Bears may have an elite run-blocking unit next year for Johnson to play behind. He’ll likely start third on Chicago’s depth chart, behind Herbert and Foreman, but that doesn’t mean he is buried. His hard-charging style makes him perfect for cold weather. Johnson’s missed-tackles-forced-per-attempt figure in 2022 was better than his Texas teammate Bijan Robinson.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Under

The Bears may be the toughest team to read in the NFL. Almost every year, someone goes worst to first. They play a reasonably soft schedule and kept some games close last year. They still ended the year as the worst team in football, though. Justin Fields has to be better from the pocket, as Chicago won’t go anywhere if he doesn't better his 54.4 passing grade. The Bears could win anywhere from four to 11 games. We’ll have to see the latter happen before we believe it.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

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23. New York Giants

Biggest strength in 2023: Rushing Attack

Head coach Brian Daboll leaned on the running game in his first year at the helm. The Giants shortened games and made clutch plays when needed. Led by a healthy Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones‘ legs, the Giants bullied their way into the playoffs. Their running game could be even better if their other young offensive linemen (Evan Neal and John Michael Schmitz) develop on the same track as stud left tackle Andrew Thomas.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Back seven on defense

The Giants have a talented defensive line, but their back seven leaves a lot to be desired. Their linebackers finished as the fourth-lowest-graded group in the NFL, while their safeties were second worst. The cornerbacks were a little better at 22nd, with Adoree' Jackson being a bright spot. New York's end result masked the low-grading profile of this unit, so the team will need to be better on the back end to avoid regression to the mean in close games.

X-Factor for 2023: TE Darren Waller

The Giants sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Waller. He brings needed athleticism and versatility to their tight end room. Giants tight ends ranked in the bottom 10 in receiving grade, receptions and receiving yards during the 2022 regular season. Waller should be an excellent scheme fit working across the field in Daboll’s system. Health is the key for Waller, as he’s missed 14 games over the past two years after terrific seasons in 2019 and 2020. A healthy Waller would be huge for an offense searching for big plays through the air.

Rookie to watch: CB Deonte Banks

Banks was the third-ranked cornerback on PFF’s big board. He is an athletic freak with the potential to be a CB1 if he’s developed properly. Adoree' Jackson was the Giants’ only cornerback in 2022 to play 100 snaps and grade out with at least a 70.0 mark. Banks fulfilling that potential soon would make a huge impact on a unit that plays more man coverage than any other team.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Under

The Giants are due for some regression to the mean. They finished 9-7-1 despite being the fourth-lowest-graded team in the NFL overall. They’re heavily reliant on the running game, and their back seven on defense has major question marks. A last-place finish in the NFC East wouldn’t be that shocking.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

24. Carolina Panthers

Biggest strength in 2023: Defensive Front

Carolina’s defensive front made some improvements in 2022, led by a breakout season from Derrick Brown. Brown’s 84.4 overall grade was a 20-point improvement from 2021. An increase in his sack total (one in 2022) would make him a legitimate star. Frankie Luvu and Shaq Thompson also played well, posting elite 90.0-plus run-defense grades for the season. Brian Burns was the star pass rusher, tallying 13 sacks.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Passing and Stopping the Pass

The Panthers ranked 27th in passing grade as a team and 28th in coverage. The combination of Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker and Sam Darnold gave them very little consistency and forced them to make the bold move of trading up in the draft for Bryce Young. On the defensive side, Jaycee Horn is a solid player, but he was their only defender to play at least 100 coverage snaps and carry a 68.0-plus coverage grade.

X-Factor for 2023: LT Ikem Ekwonu

Ekwonu had a solid rookie season, posting a 65.3 overall grade while leading the team in snaps played. His 13 penalties were tied for third most among all offensive linemen, so he still has plenty of things to work on. Ekwonu has massive potential, though, and his emergence as a franchise left tackle will quell concerns about Bryce Young’s ability to maneuver the pocket with his small stature.

Rookie to watch: QB Bryce Young

All eyes are on the first overall pick. His accuracy and instincts are elite. He just has to prove his size isn’t an issue as it pertains to durability. A decent offensive line that ranked 10th in pass-blocking grade helps his cause. The Panthers don't boast a top-flight receiving option after sending D.J. Moore to Chicago for Young, but they do have a number of decent options in D.J. Chark Jr., Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall Jr. and second-rounder Jonathan Mingo. That’s enough for Young to make Carolina reasonably competitive this season.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Over

Much like the rest of the division, this pick will be really tight. Carolina has useful pieces across its roster. Frank Reich was the right hire. The Panthers also have a soft schedule and won seven games last year with Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker and Sam Darnold under center. It’s all about Bryce Young in 2023. They’ll need some breaks, but if Young plays like a top-20 passer, Carolina could be a surprise division winner.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

25. Tennessee Titans

Biggest strength in 2023: Ground Game

Despite the Titans listening to trade offers for Derrick Henry, he remains with the team. However, he may not need to carry so much of the load in 2023, as Hassan Haskins showed flashes as a rookie of being able to take on the role of lead power back and Tennessee drafted speedster Tyjae Spears to add a new element to their backfield.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive Line

The Titans had a mass exodus of talent this offseason, letting go of numerous holdovers. No unit was hit harder than their offensive line. Already the lowest-graded pass-blocking unit in the NFL a year ago, the Titans had to let the likes of Taylor Lewan and Nate Davis leave while replacing them with players who are big question marks. They added Peter Skoronski with the 11th overall pick, and he offers positional flexibility, but this unit is still a few pieces away from just being an average group.

X-Factor for 2023: WR Treylon Burks

The receiver the Titans effectively acquired when they traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles during last year’s draft, Burks showed some flashes of what made him the 18th overall pick in 2022. He is expected to be the No. 1 pass-catching option in Tennessee in 2023 and should be in line for a big boost to his 33 catches for 444 yards and two touchdowns from a year ago.

Rookie to watch: QB Will Levis

Arguably the biggest storyline from the 2023 draft was Will Levis falling to the second round when the Titans traded up ahead of the Rams and Raiders to nab him. Ryan Tannehill’s play has been trending downward and Malik Willis doesn’t appear to be the long-term answer in Tennessee, so Levis may get the opportunity to take the reins before long.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Over

Despite all the holes on the offensive side of the ball, head coach Mike Vrabel has done more with less than what the Titans are projected to have in 2023. Given that the AFC South is one of the weaker divisions, Tennessee should still expect to be competitive.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

26. Atlanta Falcons

Biggest strength in 2023: Offensive Line

Atlanta fielded decisively the best run-blocking unit in the NFL last season while also carrying the eighth-best pass-blocking grade as a team. Chris Lindstrom was the best guard in the NFL in 2022, and retaining Kaleb McGary at right tackle is a huge plus. Jake Matthews is still a very good pass protector on the left side, and Matthew Bergeron was added this year in the second round to potentially start at left guard. Bijan Robinson should excel early behind this group.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Quarterbacks

The Falcons' defense was poor last season, but they at least poured resources into it this offseason. It’s tough to believe much in Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, though. Whoever starts likely won’t be expected to throw more than 25 times per game. They need to be efficient in the play-action game and limit turnovers to allow the run game to shine.

X-Factor for 2023: TE Kyle Pitts

Pitts’ production dropped off a cliff last season. He has the potential to be the best tight end in the league and needs to be a legitimate threat for the Falcons to succeed. Drake London is the only returning player on the team who posted more than 400 receiving yards last season. Pitts has to be at least the second-best option in order for the Falcons to overcome their shaky quarterback situation.

Rookie to watch: RB Bijan Robinson

Robinson should be the early favorite to win Rookie of the Year. He’s the most talented back to come out of the draft in the past decade and is running behind the NFL’s premier offensive line. A rushing title is not out of the question in Robinson’s first year.

Over/Under 8.5 win total: Under

It's hard to give the Falcons a winning record with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke as their quarterbacks. Even so, the NFC South may see an under-.500 division winner again. Bijan Robinson fits in perfectly behind Atlanta’s offensive line, and Arthur Smith is an excellent play caller. With that in mind, the Falcons feel like a seven-win team that could come out on top in a couple more games if their quarterbacks overachieve.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

27. Green Bay Packers

Biggest strength in 2023: Halfbacks

Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon headlined a backfield that finished with a league-high 91.9 rushing grade in 2022. Dillon profiles as the power back, while Jones offers more versatility with his quickness and route running. Jones actually finished just one catch behind Allen Lazard for the team lead. Both will be leaned on heavily in 2023 given the transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Lack of Dynamic Pass Catchers

Christian Watson showed flashes as a rookie en route to a team-leading 77.8 receiving grade and three 100-yard games. However, he did not have another game with at least 50 yards. Last season, Lazard led the team with just 60 catches and 788 yards, while Green Bay’s tight end group was among the least productive in the NFL. Losing Davante Adams was going to hurt, but Green Bay may have underestimated how important he was to their success.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Jordan Love

There’s really no way around the obvious. The Packers’ 2023 fate is tied to Jordan Love. He has just 83 career pass attempts and takes the starting job in eerily similar circumstances to Aaron Rodgers in 2008. Love looked decent in a short appearance this year against Philadelphia, but he played poorly in his only career start in Kansas City in 2021. If he can elevate the young talent around him, the Packers will be thrilled. If he falters, Green Bay could be picking toward the top of the draft in 2024.

Rookie to watch: TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft

Taken in back-to-back rounds, Musgrave and Kraft could make Love’s life a lot easier if they can create separation in intermediate windows. Both are immensely talented but dealt with injury issues in college. Musgrave can stretch the seams, while Kraft profiles as a traditional in-line tight end. The Packers are very young at wide receiver, as well. The passing game is going to need easy completions, and these two could create a lot of them.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Under

There’s some variance here being in a mediocre NFC North, but the Packers won just eight games last year with Aaron Rodgers. Their receiving corps is incredibly young, and the middle of their defense is pretty soft. If Jordan Love proves serviceable, they could hover around this total. If he doesn’t, they could be picking very early in the draft next year.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Biggest strength in 2023: Secondary

Tampa Bay lost Sean Murphy-Bunting but retained Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean and Antoine Winfield Jr. while adding Ryan Neal at safety. That’s a solid group on the back end. It will have to be the best unit on the team because the Bucs' pass rush cratered in 2022. Their most likely path to success is playing elite defense. This secondary, on paper, is a top-flight unit.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Rushing Offense

Tampa Bay struggled in several areas, but they were historically bad at running the football. Their 63.8 rushing grade was by far the worst in the NFL. Their 53.9 run-blocking grade ranked 25th. The departures of Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa, along with several injuries, ravaged their offensive line. There were stretches of games where Tom Brady had to throw every play, hence his league-leading 733 attempts in the regular season. It’s hard to imagine how his successor will succeed without an improvement in the running game.

X-Factor for 2023: EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

Tryon-Shoyinka has been in the rotation during his first two years, but the Bucs need their 2021 first-rounder to be a stud. He has just nine sacks thus far in his NFL career to go with a 60.7 pass-rush grade. A big improvement from Tryon-Shoyinka and the pass rush would be an important step forward for the team.

Rookie to watch: OL Cody Mauch

There is much debate as to what position the second-rounder from North Dakota State will play, but there is no doubt about his talent and athleticism. The Bucs have glaring needs at both guard spots and right tackle. Mauch should fill one of those spots, even if it takes a while to find out which one that is.

Over/Under 6.5 win total: Under

The Bucs scratched out eight wins last year with Tom Brady leading the league in pass attempts. Their most likely path to success is a turnaround from both Baker Mayfield and the defense. This situation feels similar to Green Bay’s. The Bucs have a few more weapons to work with, but if they get nothing out of Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask, they could be looking at a very high draft slot next year.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

29. Indianapolis Colts

Biggest strength in 2023: Offensive Line

Almost every member of the Colts' offensive line had a down year in 2022, but given the talent of Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly, expect a bounceback in 2023 to aid Anthony Richardson’s development.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Pass-Catching Options

Outside of Michael Pittman Jr., there’s a lot to be desired regarding pass catchers in this Colts offense. Neither Alec Pierce nor Jelani Woods made big impacts as rookies, though there is plenty of room for development and a reasonable expectation of improved performance in 2023.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Anthony Richardson

Richardson is about as “boom or bust” of a prospect as we’ve seen since Patrick Mahomes. And considering the only other quarterbacks on the Colts' roster are Gardner Minshew and Sam Ehlinger, Richardson will likely be starting sooner rather than later. If he defies rookie expectations and plays well, the Colts could be a dark-horse playoff candidate in a weak AFC South.

Rookie to watch: WR Josh Downs

The Colts used a third-round pick on the rookie out of North Carolina, and he will have an opportunity to contribute right away given the lack of depth at receiver. Downs earned a 90.6 receiving grade out of the slot in college and could wind up being a great complementary piece to Pittman.

Over/Under 6.5 win total: Under

A lot of the Colts’ success in 2023 is going to hinge on the development of Anthony Richardson. While new head coach Shane Steichen has a track record of developing raw quarterback prospects, expect some growing pains in year one.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

30. Houston Texans

Biggest strength in 2023: Secondary

Signing Jimmie Ward away from the 49ers was big toward improving this secondary and can help take the pressure off 2022 draftees Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre, both of whom had very up-and-down rookie seasons. If those two can reach their potential in 2023, this secondary has the potential to be a no-fly zone.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Wide receiver

After trading away Brandin Cooks, there are a lot of question marks at wide receiver. The Texans made some moves, acquiring depth pieces Robert Woods and Noah Brown and drafting Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson, but they currently lack any top-end talent to help rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

X-Factor for 2023: CB Derek Stingley Jr.

Stingley had a tough rookie season, but cornerbacks typically take some time to adjust to the NFL. Under new head coach DeMeco Ryans, Stingley will have every opportunity to develop into the high-level cornerback we saw at LSU.

Rookie to watch: EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

The Texans gave up a fortune to trade up to the No. 3 pick in the draft to select the Alabama pass rusher, and for good reason. The next best edge rusher on the roster is Jerry Hughes, who turns 35 in August. Anderson was one of the most productive pass rushers in the country over the past few years and should provide an immediate boost to a Texans unit that sorely needs it.

Over/Under 5.5 win total: Under
Despite making a lot of moves to build a roster core, this Texans team is still a couple of years away from making a dent in the AFC playoff picture.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

31. Los Angeles Rams

Biggest strength in 2023: Run Defense

The Rams had plenty of issues last year, but they fielded the league’s highest-graded run-defense unit (87.0). Jalen Ramsey and Bobby Wagner led the way, with each grading out above 91.0 in run defense. Taylor Rapp was also excellent with an 82.3 run-defense grade. Unfortunately, all three will play elsewhere in 2023, leaving the Rams' defense with Aaron Donald and a bunch of open competitions. Having Donald as the foundation is a good start.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Offensive Line

The Rams were hit with an absurd number of injuries up front. Only two of their offensive linemen played at least 500 snaps. Right tackle Rob Havenstein was the only one to appear in all 17 games. The Rams were the lowest-scoring team in the NFL outside of their 51-point drubbing of Denver on Christmas Day. The offensive line injuries, and subsequent Matthew Stafford injuries, were the primary reason for their downfall.

X-Factor for 2023: RB Cam Akers

Akers seemingly worked his way out of the doghouse during the season and finished with three straight 100-yard performances. He earned an 80.4 rushing grade on the year and is in line for heavy work in 2023. Sean McVay likely goes back to basics with his outside-zone scheme. Akers could put up 1,200 yards with a starter’s workload.

Rookie to watch: G Steve Avila

The second-rounder out of TCU should be an immediate starter at either guard spot for the Rams. Four different players appeared at left guard for them last year, while six made an appearance at right guard. Avila locking down one of those spots would bring desperately needed stability up front. He was one of the best pass-protecting guards in the 2023 class (83.6 grade in 2022).

Over/Under 6.5 win total: Under

A glance at the Rams' roster shows a team dealing with the consequences of their win-now approach over the past half-decade. They got their trophy, but the cupboard looks pretty bare. Healthy versions of Stafford, Kupp and Donald give them a chance to win games. That’s about it. They won five last year and let go of Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey. It's gard to see how a team so thin gets to seven wins.

Projected 2023 starting lineup

32. Arizona Cardinals

Biggest strength in 2023: Pass Protection

Arizona’s 71.6 pass-blocking grade in 2022 was good for 13th in the league. D.J. Humphries, Will Hernandez, Kelvin Beachum and Josh Jones all put up 75.0-plus pass-blocking grades. The Cardinals suddenly have a glut of starting-caliber tackles at their disposal. Jones and rookie Paris Johnson Jr. have some versatility, so one of them will likely slide inside. The Cardinals' offensive line isn’t as bad as some narratives make it out to be.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Everything Else

The Cardinals graded out as the third-worst offense and sixth-worst defense in the NFL last year. Josh Jones was the highest-graded player on the entire team (75.8), and he started only nine games. Kyler Murray made nine big-time throws and 18 turnover-worthy plays before tearing his ACL in Week 14. Several high draft picks on defense continue to disappoint. New head coach Jonathan Gannon has a lot of work to do.

X-Factor for 2023: QB Kyler Murray

Murray’s Week 1 status is far from certain. It’s hard to think the Cardinals stand a chance if Colt McCoy or fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune starts a significant number of games for them. When will Murray be back on the field? Will he be able to use his trademark scrambling ability? Can he return to his pre-2022 form throwing the football? Arizona may have the most uncertain quarterback situation in the league right now.

Rookie to watch: OL Paris Johnson Jr.

The Cardinals did a masterful job trading down, then back up, to acquire Johnson with the sixth pick in the draft. Johnson has been versatile and very solid wherever he has played. He started at right guard and left tackle for Ohio State, the best zone run-blocking team in college football over the past two years. Johnson may slot in at left guard this year, but regardless, Arizona got a potential game-changer up front.

Over/Under 4.5 win total: Under

The end result in Arizona will center around Kyler Murray. The Cardinals went 3-7 in games that Murray started and finished last season. His peripherals weren’t great, and at times his scrambling seemed to be his best weapon. This Cardinals team with a 2020-2021 version of Murray could probably win six or seven games, but we don’t know when he will come back and how he will look, especially when scrambling. The Cardinals allowed the second-most points in the NFL last year. They likely lose every game Murray doesn’t start — and most of them that he does.

Projected 2023 starting lineup