NFL Draft News & Analysis

Way-Too-Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. land in Arizona, Colts grab Joe Alt

Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) rushes for a touchdown in the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Arizona Cardinals get both Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr.: After obtaining the Houston Texans’ 2024 first-round pick, Arizona has both of the top-two picks in this 2024 mock.
  • The Indianapolis Colts get a new franchise left tackle: Indianapolis grabs Joe Alt at No. 3, who looks like the best offensive tackle prospect since Penei Sewell.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers get their Tom Brady replacement: The Buccaneers pick Drake Maye No. 5, who could push Williams for QB1 in 2024.
Estimated reading time: 12 minutes

Now that the 2023 NFL Draft has come and gone, it’s time to take a breather before looking ahead to 2024.

Just kidding. 

Here’s our way-too-early 2024 NFL mock draft. The draft order is based on Super Bowl 58 odds.

Editor's note: The draft order was last updated on 4/29 at 5:30 PM EST

1. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): QB Caleb Williams, USC 

By trading the third overall pick in the 2023 draft to the Texans, the Cardinals obtained Houston’s first-round pick in 2024. If the Texans end up as the worst team in the league like the oddsmakers predict, that trade could have landed Arizona one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory.

Williams won the Heisman Trophy this past season and could become head coach Lincoln Riley’s third signal-caller to both win the stiff-arm trophy and go first overall, joining Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. The junior thrives outside of structure, leading all FBS quarterbacks in passing yards (707), passing touchdowns (seven) and big-time throws (10). Get ready for all of the Patrick Mahomes comparisons.

2. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

As of now, the Cardinals are the favorites to own both of the top-two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. If that happens, they’d join the 1992 Indianapolis Colts as the only teams to pick twice to start the draft.

With DeAndre Hopkins likely on his way out, Arizona could give Williams his new X-receiver in Harrison Jr. Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison’s son could be one of the best wide receiver prospects in the PFF era. He’s a freak athlete at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds and was both the highest-graded and most valuable receiver in the country this past season, according to PFF’s wins above average metric.

3. Indianapolis Colts: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

The Colts have their quarterback of the future in Anthony Richardson, now it’s time to build around him. Alt led all tackles in the country in overall grade (91.4) and run-blocking grade (91.0). He was also sixth among Power Five ones in pressure rate allowed (2.1%). He has a massive frame at 6-foot-8, 315 pounds and told me he has over a seven-foot wingspan. Alt looks like the best offensive tackle prospect since Penei Sewell

4. Tennessee Titans: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

Bowers has been the best tight end in college football from the minute he stepped onto Georgia’s campus. As a true freshman, he was both the highest-graded and most valuable tight end in the country according to our wins above-average metric. This past season, he was once again the most valuable tight end and led them all in receiving yards (942), yards after the catch (479) and receiving yards after contact (274).

With another elite season, he could become the best tight end in the PFF College era. 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

The Buccaneers find their new franchise quarterback in Maye, who was the most valuable player in college football last season according to our wins above average metric. His 45 big-time throws were 10 more than the next-closest FBS quarterback and he tied for second among all quarterbacks with 56 combined rushing first downs/touchdowns.=

6. Washington Commanders: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State

Fashanu was a projected first-rounder in the 2023 NFL Draft but opted to return to get his master’s degree. Not only does he excel in the classroom, but he also excels in pass protection. His 84.7 pass-blocking grade was sixth among Power Five tackles, and he didn’t surrender a sack and only allowed one hit on 281 pass-blocking snaps.

7. Los Angeles Rams: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

As of now, this would be the first first-round pick the Rams have had since selecting Jared Goff No. 1 in 2016. 

After trading away Jalen Ramsey, the Rams need to find their next No. 1 corner. McKinstry can fill that role. He was a first-team All-American for PFF this past season, and his 18 forced incompletions tied for second among all corners in the country. He also led all Power Five players with 332 punt return yards. 

8. Green Bay Packers: WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

The Packers have now gone 21 straight drafts without taking a wide receiver or tight end in the first round. That ends here with Egbuka, who was the second-most valuable Power Five receiver last season according to PFF’s wins above average metric. The only one more valuable was his teammate, Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Among returning Power Five receivers, only Harrison tallied more receiving yards and touchdowns than Egbuka. He’s a smooth receiver who should be one of the top weapons immediately for new quarterback Jordan Love.

9. Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State

Like Fashanu, Verse would’ve likely been a first-round selection in 2023 had he declared. Instead, he enters next season as a projected top-10 pick in 2024. The former Albany edge dominated in his first season at the FBS level, as his 24.4% pass-rush win rate was fourth among Power Five edge defenders while his 10 tackles for loss/no gain tied for sixth. 

10. Pittsburgh Steelers: LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., Clemson

The son of former All-Pro linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Sr., the sophomore linebacker has lived up to his father’s name and then some.

The younger Trotter excels on passing plays, as he was the only Power Five linebacker with 80-plus grades as a pass-rusher and in coverage. Trotter was second in that same group in both passer rating allowed (42.9) and open target rate allowed (47.6%).

11. Seattle Seahawks: DI Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

In an exclusive interview with PFF, Newton revealed that he returned to Illinois partly because he wanted to be a first-round pick. He was the most valuable Power Five interior defensive lineman this past season and led that same group with 59 pressures. His 13 tackles for loss/no-gain were tied for the most among FBS interior defensive linemen as well.

12. New England Patriots: OT JC Latham, Alabama

Latham was an elite pass-protector at right tackle for Alabama this past season as a sophomore. He earned an 84.5 pass-blocking grade on true pass sets, fourth among all tackles in the country. On 486 pass-blocking snaps, he only allowed one hit and didn’t give up a sack. 

13. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t the long-term answer for the Raiders. Penix led the Power Five this past season with 4,641 passing yards while his 1.3% turnover-worthy play rate was the fifth-lowest in the country. 

14. Chicago Bears: EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama

The Bears took two interior defensive linemen on Day 2, now they need to find some juice along the edge. Turner has been overshadowed by Will Anderson Jr. the last two years, but he’s a star in his own right. Since 2021, Turner’s 14 sacks are tied for the second-most among returning Power Five edge defenders. 

15. Chicago Bears (via CAR): CB Kalen King, Penn State

Even on a team with Joey Porter Jr., King was the true star in Penn State’s secondary. He led all corners in the country with a 93.3 grade and 18.3 passer rating allowed in single-coverage. King’s 15 forced incompletions in single-coverage were tied for third as well. 

16. Denver Broncos: CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa Hawkeyes

After taking Riley Moss in the third round of this year’s draft, the Broncos select another Iowa defensive back here. DeJean is the most versatile corner in college football. He can excel both in coverage and as a run-defender either on the outside or as a slot corner. DeJean was the only corner in the country with 85-plus grades both in coverage and in run defense. His five interceptions tied for fourth among Power Five corners while his 15 run-defense stops tied for the most among all FBS ones.

17. Houston Texans (via CLE): DI Leonard Taylor, Miami (FL) Hurricanes

This past season, Taylor lived up to his top-10 recruit billing coming out of high school. His 19.5% pass-rush win rate and 16.2% pressure rate trailed only Calijah Kancey among Power Five interior defensive linemen. With an increased workload, Taylor could rise even higher than this.

18. Los Angeles Chargers: TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas

Even after selecting Quentin Johnston, the Chargers could stand to add some pass-catchers. Sanders is a freak athlete at 6-foot-4, 242 pounds, and his 32 combined receiving first downs/touchdowns in 2022 trailed only Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers among Power Five tight ends. 

19. New York Giants: EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State

Robinson dominated in his first year with the Nittany Lions after transferring in from Maryland. He led all Power Five edge defenders in overall grade (90.6) and pass-rushing grade (92.4) this past season. Robinson’s 23.6% pass-rush win rate was sixth among that same group. 

20. New Orleans Saints: EDGE J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State

Tuimoloau had one of the greatest games you’ll ever see against Penn State. In that contest, he recorded two sacks, two interceptions (one of which he returned for a touchdown), a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, a tackle for loss, a batted pass and three pressures. He needs to be more consistent, earning just a 67.0 grade in the other 12 games. Still, his physical tools are worth betting on in the top 20. 

21. Minnesota Vikings: QB Quinn Ewers, Texas

Ewers disappointed in his first season as a starter after being one of the highest-rated quarterback recruits ever. He still flashed his ridiculous arm talent, as his 6.6% big-time throw rate ranked sixth among Power Five quarterbacks. The issue is his decision-making and accuracy. Ewers’ 65.2% adjusted completion rate was the eighth-worst in the Power Five. If he can rein it in, Ewers can join Caleb Williams and Drake Maye at the top of the draft. 

22. Miami Dolphins: OT Graham Barton, Duke

Barton was the only Power Five tackle who posted 85-plus grades as both a pass and run blocker last season. His 17 big-time blocks (PFF’s highest-graded blocks) were five more than any other tackle in the country. He’ll boost a Dolphins offensive line that needs to do everything it can to protect Tua Tagovailoa.  

23. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Denzel Burke, Ohio State

As a true freshman, Burke started at outside corner for Ohio State and only allowed a 48.4% completion rate while forcing 10 incompletions and not allowing any touchdowns. 

He regressed as a sophomore, allowing a 110.2 passer rating when targeted. He’s a physical press corner at 6-foot-1, 190 pounds and could go much higher than this with a bounceback junior campaign.

24. Baltimore Ravens: DI Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State

Hall only played 266 snaps this past season as a part of Ohio State’s defensive tackle rotation. He flashed on those snaps though, with an 80.3 grade and six sacks on those snaps. After losing Calais Campbell, the Ravens could use another player on the interior of their defensive line.

25. Detroit Lions: DI Maason Smith, LSU

Smith played all of eight snaps last season before tearing his ACL. At 6-foot-5 and 300 pounds, he played mostly along the edge for LSU in his freshman year, showing how incredible of an athlete he is. In 2021, he had four sacks on 198 pass-rushing snaps.

26. Dallas Cowboys: OL Cooper Beebe, Kansas State

Beebe spent the last two seasons at offensive tackle before moving inside to left guard in 2022.

Over the last two seasons, the junior’s 94.0 pass-blocking grade leads all offensive linemen in the country, as he hasn’t allowed a sack over the course of his 770 pass-blocking snaps since 2021. He’s also the most valuable returning interior offensive lineman in the country over those two years according to PFF’s wins above average metric.

27. Green Bay Packers (via NYJ): S Kamren Kinchens, Miami (FL)

The Packers acquire the Jets’ first-round pick if Aaron Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps in 2023. Unless disaster strikes for New York, this will be Green Bay’s pick. 

Kinchens led all safeties in the country with a 90.0 grade and a 90.7 coverage grade. Kinchens’ six interceptions were also tied for the most in the Power Five.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: S Calen Bullock, USC Trojans

After losing Jessie Bates III, the Bengals can stand to address the safety position even after taking Daxton Hill in 2022, who can line up at slot corner. Bullock was a first-team All-American for PFF this past season and was the third-most valuable one in the country according to PFF’s wins above average metric. His five interceptions tied for fifth among all FBS safeties. He can be the new center fielder in Cincinnati’s defense.

29. San Francisco 49ers: OT Jonah Monheim, USC Trojans

After losing Mike McGlinchey, the 49ers need a new right tackle. Monheim plays there for USC and was the second-most valuable tackle in the country, only trailing Joe Alt. Monheim totaled the most pass-blocking snaps in the country without allowing a sack or hit (570).

30. Buffalo Bills: OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU

A former five-star recruit in 2021, Suamataia transferred to BYU from Oregon this past season and flashed his elite tools at right tackle. He earned an impressive 80.9 pass-blocking grade in 2022. 

31. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

It was a relatively down year for Worthy, whose 70.1 receiving grade in 2022 was more than 10 points lower than what he posted in 2021 as a true freshman. Despite seeing 10 more targets this past season, the sophomore recorded 224 fewer receiving yards and four fewer touchdowns than his dominant 2021 year.

He became much more of a downfield receiver this past season, with his average depth of target being 17.6 yards, which ranked seventh highest in the Power Five. That dwarfs his 13.4-yard figure from 2021, which was 69th in the same group. By making him more of a downfield threat, Texas took away one of Worthy’s best attributes: his ability after the catch. As a true freshman, Worthy’s 526 yards after the catch were the 10th most in the Power Five. He fell to 41st this year with only 324 yards after the catch. 

32. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Outside of the Ohio State duo, Odunze is the most productive returning Power Five receiver.

The junior’s 605 yards against single coverage trailed only Marvin Harrison Jr. among that group. He’s also the third-most valuable returning Power Five receiver, according to PFF’s wins above average metric.

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