• Bryce Young holding tight at No. 1: Betting markets continue to gyrate on Pick 1, but at the time of writing, Young is the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall.
• Anthony Richardson creeping up: Richardson recently moved to a minus price to be selected third, with the Cardinals expected to become sellers when it’s their turn on the clock.
• Download the PFF draft guide today: Be sure to download the latest edition of the PFF draft guide, which is loaded with more than 300 pages of PFF-exclusive advanced stats, grades and analysis on some of the top prospects expected to enter the draft.
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
April means one thing: It's mock draft season.
Most mock drafts come with the disclaimer that they are not trying to be predictive but rather a reflection of what the writer would do if they were in charge of the NFL franchises. This is very useful, as differences in opinion help us learn more than herd mentality does — it’s the basis for James Surowiecki's best-selling book The Wisdom of the Crowds.
Since football fans bet on the NFL draft, we can add a market element to the typical approach. The PFF Forecast has spent the better part of a month and a half scouring the markets looking for value — and some of these markets have moved significantly, as evidenced by the wild ride the No. 1 overall pick has taken.
The mock draft below is based on our interpretation of the current betting markets, with betting lines courtesy of our friends at DraftKings and other places. This differs slightly from Benjamin Robinson’s great work on Grinding the Mocks, which uses mock draft data and models built from them to make predictions on draft position. Both are wisdom-of-the-crowd approaches; it is just that the crowds differ. You can find last year’s version of this mock here.
This mock is intended to be predictive by its very nature, but there are a few editorial assumptions here. Additionally — and unlike a few years prior — there are not robust markets for players after around Pick 14, so inferences past that point are extremely noisy. All lines are as of April 12 and are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise specified, although previous prices were also considered.
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS: QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
Betting markets continue to gyrate on Pick 1, but Young is the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall at the time of writing. Only time will tell which side is correct, as the intrigue in this market leading up to draft day will make for a chaotic first round.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE
Markets indicate confidence in the Texans staying on the conventional path and selecting their future signal-caller with the second pick in the NFL draft. The only question seems to be the order in which these two quarterbacks are selected.
3. TENNESSEE TITANS (FROM ARZ): QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA
Richardson recently moved to a minus price to be selected third, with the Cardinals expected to become sellers when it’s their turn on the clock.
Related: The case for drafting QB Anthony Richardson No. 1 overall
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: QB WILL LEVIS, KENTUCKY
If the Colts are leapfrogged, they will likely reach for the fourth quarterback on the board. No book offers Colts “first position taken” markets, indicating a heavy appetite for them to select a quarterback, regardless of how the first three picks turn out.
5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA
There is an 80% implied probability of the Alabama pass-rusher being the first non-quarterback drafted. The market is paying a 33.3% chance that Anderson goes No. 3, and if not, a slide to No. 5 looks like the likely outcome.
6. DETROIT LIONS: CB DEVON WITHERSPOON, ILLINOIS
Witherspoon has seemingly flown up draft boards after an impressive post-workout period. He’s now off the board after the Lions traded away CB Jeff Okudah, but he was priced at a 66.7% probability to be selected within the first eight picks. He is still the overwhelming favorite to be the first cornerback selected.
Detroit has a 71.4% probability of going cornerback with its first selection.
7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: DI JALEN CARTER, GEORGIA
Carter has moved from a 67.7% probability to a 62.3% chance of being selected within the first seven picks. The anticipated slide could start if the Lions go cornerback and the Raiders draft with an eye toward upside and go with Tyree Wilson.
Las Vegas missing out on the quarterback run means they should at least have their pick of quality defensive linemen and kick the quarterback question to a different season.
8. ATLANTA FALCONS: EDGE TYREE WILSON, TEXAS TECH
Atlanta has over a 50% implied probability of drafting an edge or interior defender with its first selection. With the first cornerback off the board already, it increases the likelihood of Atlanta going in this direction.
They seem unlikely to target an offensive lineman — even though they would have their pick of the crop — as they have an 11.8% probability of doing so.
9. CHICAGO BEARS: OT PARIS JOHNSON JR., OHIO STATE
According to DraftKings, only two other teams are more likely to select a certain position.
The draft going in this direction is a dream setup for the Bears, who would have their pick of the big four offensive linemen in this draft class. The betting market has recently moved to Paris Johnson Jr. being the first offensive lineman selected, with the Ohio State star moving to a 58.3% implied probability in the past 24 hours.
10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: OT PETER SKORONSKI, NORTHWESTERN
Philadelphia looks poised to capitalize on whichever position is overlooked, with the betting market expecting the Eagles to target the trenches at No. 10 overall. This could also be a spot for the first cornerback selected, but the offensive line slip priced into the market presents a perfect spot for the Eagles to continue building on their team’s top strength.
11. ARIZONA CARDINALS (FROM TITANS): CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, OREGON
Arizona holds the key to the top of the first round, and how far they drop determines the direction they go with their first-round pick. The market currently prices a defensive lineman as the likely position, with cornerback as the only other viable option.
Staying at No. 3 is baked into these numbers, so if the Cardinals drop this far, cornerback will immediately become the favorite for the Cardinals in this range.
12. HOUSTON TEXANS: WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, OHIO STATE
Houston continues to be the most likely landing spot for JSN, with the market's only pause being the Bears scooping him up at No. 9.
Given their recent decision to move on from Brandin Cooks, offense should be the only priority for the Texans on Day 1. Pairing the top offensive weapon with their young signal-caller and hoping they blossom together is too likely of a scenario to ignore.
13. NEW YORK JETS: OT BRODERICK JONES, GEORGIA
Jones sits in a clear second tier in the first offensive lineman odds but is only three selections below the current favorite based on the draft position market. Under 13.5 at -175 implies that the Jets are the likely floor for Jones.
14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: OT DARNELL WRIGHT, TENNESSEE
The Patriots are the only team whose most likely drafted position pays better than +200. DraftKings basically admits no one knows what Belichick and the Patriots are going to do, with wide receiver, offensive lineman and cornerback all at +250.
With edge seeming unlikely, Joey Porter Jr. makes some sense here, but it looks like one of the tackles will be the Patriots' approach.
15. GREEN BAY PACKERS: EDGE LUKAS VAN NESS, IOWA
Edge or defensive lineman is the most likely selection for the Packers, according to DraftKings team draft specials. This is a bit lower than the consensus mock drafts have him going, as he has an EDP of 12 on GrindingTheMocks.
16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: CB JOEY PORTER JR., PENN STATE
There isn’t a mid-first-round pick linked to a team more than Porter is to the Commanders.
Washington has over a 50% chance of choosing a cornerback, and Porter’s EDP has been locked at 16 dating back to December 2022.
17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: CB DEONTE BANKS, MARYLAND
Banks continues to quickly rise up draft boards and seems solidly locked into the first 20 picks. He is CB4 based on consensus mock drafts and should set up the position to go over the listed prop number on DraftKings.
18. DETROIT LIONS: WR QUENTIN JOHNSTON, TCU
At one point projected to be a top-10 pick, Johnson remains WR1 on PFF’s big board despite underwhelming in the workouts leading up to draft day. There are enough wide receiver-needy teams that even an underwhelming receiver class should see at least four players selected in the first round.
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: EDGE NOLAN SMITH, GEORGIA
Tampa Bay sits at an inflection point in the first round, which sets up well to get the best player available. This class is deep on both sides of the trenches, and it seems likely that the Buccaneers will go in one of those two directions.
20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: DI CALIJAH KANCEY, PITTSBURGH
Everyone wants Seattle to go quarterback in the first round, but this approach to their two picks could set them up with years of productive play at the key positions along the defensive line.
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: WR JORDAN ADDISON, USC
The Chargers seem poised to go pass-catcher at No. 21. The only question is whether they target wide receiver or tight end. This could be the spot for pass-catching sensation Dalton Kincaid, but with the Chargers' emphasis on slot production, they could look to keep Jordan Addison at home.
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS: CB EMMANUEL FORBES, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Forbes is another cornerback quickly rising up draft boards, as size doesn’t seem to be as pressing a concern at cornerback as in years past. After Baltimore added Odell Beckham Jr., cornerback moved to a -110 favorite to be the first position Baltimore targets.
23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR ZAY FLOWERS, BOSTON COLLEGE
Minnesota enters an interesting inflection point between a complete rebuild and a situation where they try to stay competitive. Building around Justin Jefferson points toward offense being the selection for the Vikings, with wide receiver as the most likely position. If we expect wide receivers to slip some, then Minnesota could be looking at their pick of the second tier when they select at pick 23.
24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: TE DALTON KINCAID, UTAH
Kincaid moved to a heavy favorite in his matchup against Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer, with the first tight end selection also moving considerably in his favor.
With the total for the position set at 2.5, it wouldn't be shocking to see a run on tight ends happen in the 20s.
25. NEW YORK GIANTS: EDGE WILL MCDONALD IV, IOWA STATE
The deepest position in the draft allows the Giants to draft the best player currently on the board. Defensive line is unlikely, based on the odds, but the Giants may not have their pick of wide receivers if they hold at 25.
26. DALLAS COWBOYS: EDGE MYLES MURPHY, CLEMSON
The most likely spot for running back, but it is still priced at +550 for the Cowboys to go that route with their first selection. The more likely option is tight end or edge, with the Cowboys continuing to prioritize defense.
27. BUFFALO BILLS: DI BRYAN BRESEE, CLEMSON
Linebacker is the most likely position for the Bills, but it doesn’t project to be a reasonable selection spot, given the PFF ratings on this class of linebackers. Instead, the Bills could look to alleviate the need for quality linebacker play by getting a run-stuffing interior defender to cause havoc against multiple blockers.
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS: OT ANTON HARRISON, OKLAHOMA
It was their highest priority need last offseason, and although it’s only the third-most-likely position Cincinnati targets, don’t be surprised if the Bengals work to get more protection for Joe Burrow.
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: DI MAZI SMITH, MICHIGAN
Edge or interior defender is the overwhelming favorite for the Saints. And given the strength of both positions in this draft, it should very much be a spot they can fill at Pick 29.
30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS
The Eagles don’t seem like the team to go first-round running back, but the betting market is pricing in pretty heavily some team selecting Robinson in the first round.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: S BRIAN BRANCH, ALABAMA
Branch is too good a player to fall out of the first round. The Chiefs go best player available at No. 31.
TOTALS:
- Quarterbacks: 4 (4.5, +125/-155)
- Running backs: 1 (1.5, +400/-600)
- Tight ends: 2 (2.5, +175/-225)
- Wide receivers: 4 (4.5, +245/-320
- Offensive linemen: 5 (5.5, -200/+160)
- Total defensive backs: 6 (4.5, -380/+260)
- ACC: 4 (3.5, -140/+110)
- Big 10: 9 (8.5, -240/+190)
- Big 12: 5 (3.5, -185/+150)
- SEC: Players 9 (11.5, -235/+185)
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