• Bryce Young to go No. 1 overall: Bryce Young was the heavy favorite to go first overall before the Panthers traded up, and nothing has happened since to change that. The betting market has swung a little too dramatically toward C.J. Stroud, which creates a buying opportunity for Bryce Young to be the first selection.
• Bills look to the defensive line: The draft seems set for Sean McDermott to return to his roots and prioritize defense early, trying to fill losses from free agency. The obvious solution looks to be linebacker, but 12 of the top 35 prospects on the PFF big board play along the defensive line or at edge defender.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
With NFL free agency all but complete and win totals finally hitting the betting market, it’s time to turn our attention away from the veteran quarterback news cycle and check in on the ever-growing draft prop offerings.
Last time we looked at the draft props, the team to pick at No. 1 overall was the best bet on the board, and we got a quick winner after recommending the Carolina Panthers at +300.
Christian Gonzalez as the first cornerback off the board moved against the recommended bet, but it still seems like too short a price not to take Gonzalez, the heavy favorite in that market.
Let’s dive into some of the best draft prop bets available ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Who goes No. 1 overall?
Earlier this month, we suggested that the Panthers move up to No. 1 and select quarterback Bryce Young. And although they fulfilled part of the prophecy, the betting market has swung heavily toward C.J. Stroud being the No. 1 selection.
Carolina might have Stroud high on their board, but it doesn’t seem completely set, given the most recent comments from head coach Frank Reich. Talking to reporters, Reich suggested he'd be taking the next two weeks to solidify his pick at quarterback. He also indicated that Anthony Richardson and Will Levis — who have pro days coming up — aren’t out of the running.
Most suspect the uncertainty is nothing more than a ploy. After all, if the Panthers were so unsure about who to select, why did they feel the need to move up to No. 1 to get their guy? Of course, it makes some sense to make the move if you identify the exact player you want, but there was some question about whether they really had to move all the way to No. 1 if they wanted to select C.J. Stroud.
Bryce Young was the heavy favorite to go first overall before the trade, and nothing has happened since to change that. Four weeks before the draft, it seems like the betting market has swung a little too dramatically in the opposite direction, which creates a buying opportunity for Bryce Young to be the first selection.
Best bet: Bryce Young (+250 on FanDuel)
Who will be drafted earlier, Zay Flowers or Jalin Hyatt?
Zay Flowers was all the rage coming out of the Senior Bowl in January, but the gap between him and Jalin Hyatt appears tighter than the current price suggests.
Priced at +450, Hyatt being selected before Flowers has an implied probability of 18.2%, which seems stark considering that Hyatt had a better showing at the combine.
Flowers measuring in at 5-foot-9 seems to be a concern among teams, but it hasn't impacted his mock draft status. His expected draft position based on publicly available mock drafts (EDP) on GrindingTheMocks is 25.5, with Hyatt at 37.5 and falling out of the first round.
This year's wide receiver class has underwhelmed somewhat — especially compared to years past — which could cause the position as a whole to slip. If that happens, it really only takes one team to have Hyatt higher than Flowers on the board because of the measurables.
Given the heavy plus price offered, this one is way closer than the 18.2% implied probability that the market is currently priced at.
BEST BET: Jalin Hyatt (+450 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
WHICH POSITION WILL THE BUFFALO BILLS DRAFT FIRST?
Buffalo’s tried a number of paths but found little success when it comes to finding a solid WR2.
DraftKings prices wide receiver as the most likely path but may overlook how desperately the Bills see this need.
To some extent, they attempted to address their two highest-priced positions in free agency with the acquisitions of Connor McGovern and Deonte Harty.
The current expectation is that we see some slide from this receiver class, which can only happen if teams in the back half of the first round look elsewhere. There’s a chance Buffalo falls in love with one player and moves up to get him, but the most likely scenario is they go for the best player available, and they seem just a bit too low to capitalize on one of the top two wide receivers even if a slip happens.
The draft seems set for Sean McDermott to return to his roots and prioritize defense early, trying to fill losses from free agency. The obvious solution looks to be linebacker, but 12 of the top 35 prospects on the PFF big board play along the defensive line or at edge defender.
If the Bills choose to go best player available, there's a high likelihood it ends up being at one of these two positions.
BEST BET: Defensive Lineman/Edge (+400 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
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