• Commanders' decision with Chase Young among the most difficult: The team has already invested heavily in its defensive line, and injuries have sidelined Young for the better part of two seasons.
• Dolphins make the first move with Tua: Miami became the first team to announce its fifth-year option plans, keeping Tagovailoa for his fifth year after his impressive 2022 season.
• A tale of two players for the Vikings: Justin Jefferson may get a mega extension before the Vikings even need to exercise this option. Meanwhile, Jalen Reagor caught just eight passes in 2022.
Estimated Reading Time: 16 mins
Mock draft mania is officially in full swing, but there’s another important date related to the 2023 NFL Draft that falls on the Monday immediately following this year’s festivities in Kansas City: the deadline for teams to exercise the fifth-year option on 2020 first-round picks (May 1).
The calculus with the options has completely changed in recent years, and we’ve already seen the repercussions. Starting with the 2018 draft class, these options are now fully guaranteed the moment they are exercised, whereas they used to be exercised for injury only.
Three notable players from the 2019 draft class had their options declined last offseason: New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and Atlanta Falcons right tackle Kaleb McGary. The decisions were not solely tied to the new option rules, but they were likely a factor.
Jones signed a four-year, $160 million extension earlier in March, McGary agreed to a three-year, $34.5 million contract to return to the Atlanta Falcons a few days into free agency and Jacobs has yet to sign his franchise tender with extension talks presumably ongoing.
We somewhat underestimated the effect this would have in predicting last year’s decisions, so we may be less bullish this time around, though it’s important not to overcorrect. This is especially true considering the three above examples could all cause other teams to avoid the risk of a fourth-year breakout without the option in place for Year 5.
With that foundation in place, we make our predictions for the 2020 class.
PICK NO. 1: CINCINNATI BENGALS: QB JOE BURROW
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 92.4 (4th/62)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 11.0 (4th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $29,504,000 (1 Pro Bowl)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
This option is just a placeholder while Burrow and the Bengals work out what will likely be the biggest contract in NFL history in terms of average annual value.
PICK NO. 2: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: EDGE CHASE YOUNG
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 87.2 (12th/189)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.58 (18th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $17,452,000 (1 Pro Bowl)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
This is the most fascinating decision facing any team on this list for a multitude of reasons. First and foremost, the Commanders recently extended interior defender Daron Payne to the tune of $90 million across four years just one offseason after signing Jonathan Allen to a four-year, $72 million extension. Edge defender Montez Sweat is entering his fifth-year option season in 2023 coming off a career-high 86.4 grade. Washington simply cannot pay all four players, but do they push that decision out another year and buy themselves time with Young? Or rip the Band-Aid off now?
While Young’s knee injury sustained in 2021 cost him a whopping 22 games, he made the Pro Bowl as a rookie for a reason, with his 87.2 overall grade ranking sixth among edge defenders on the season. The risk associated with not picking up his option could be that if Washington doesn’t extend Sweat this offseason, they’d only have one franchise tag at their disposal with both entering unrestricted free agency.
PICK NO. 3: DETROIT LIONS: CB JEFFREY OKUDAH
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 50.1 (180th/213)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.05 (300th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $11,514,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Okudah has battled injuries throughout his first three NFL seasons, including serious ligament tears, and it’s not perfectly clear where he is in the Lions' long-term plans after they signed cornerbacks Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency. To Okudah's credit, he logged nearly 800 snaps in 2022, but the Lions' defense also ranked 29th in expected points allowed per dropback on the season.
PICK NO. 4: NEW YORK GIANTS: T ANDREW THOMAS
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 80.8 (22nd/223)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.63 (13th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $14,175,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Thomas has developed into one of the best tackles in the NFL, with his 88.8 pass-blocking grade in 2022 ranking second among left tackles and his 80.0 run-blocking grade placing third. With Houston Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil recently resetting the market — for a second time before age 30, no less — Thomas could be in for an enormous extension before this option even kicks in.
PICK NO. 5: MIAMI DOLPHINS: QB TUA TAGOVAILOA
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 76.0 (24th/62)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 4.27 (19th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $23,171,000 (Playtime escalator)
- Result: Exercised
The Dolphins were the first team to announce plans to exercise the fifth-year option, an important and emphatic statement following a series of concussions for Tagovailoa in 2022 and with speculation swirling about a hypothetical pursuit of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Tagovailoa may not join Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert in receiving a huge extension this offseason, but he certainly earned this option after his 8.6 yards per attempt in 2022 led the league by more than half a yard.
PICK NO. 6: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: QB JUSTIN HERBERT
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 89.7 (7th/62)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 9.62 (6th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $29,504,000 (1 Pro Bowl)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
In the same vein as Joe Burrow, Herbert’s option will be exercised and then only truly exist for a matter of months before he is signed to a gigantic multi-year extension.
PICK NO. 7: CAROLINA PANTHERS: DI DERRICK BROWN
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 74.2 (28th/192)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.48 (17th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $11,665,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Brown took a major step forward in 2022, finishing the season as one of just six interior defenders with 75.0-plus grades as a run defender and pass rusher, and joining elite company in that club: Dexter Lawrence, Chris Jones, Aaron Donald, Quinnen Williams and Cameron Heyward.
Brown’s 31 defensive stops and 10 tackles for loss or no gain were both top-15 marks at the position in 2022. This will be an easy decision for Carolina, much like it was last offseason with edge defender Brian Burns.
PICK NO. 8: ARIZONA CARDINALS: LB ISAIAH SIMMONS
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 59.1 (82nd/144)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.29 (41st)
- Fifth-year option amount: $12,722,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Decline
After being shuffled around a bit on defense, Simmons appears to have found a home as a box safety/slot player in Arizona, earning a career-best 67.9 grade in 2022 and showing the type of athleticism that made him a top-10 pick, including an acrobatic pick-six against the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football. However, new head coach Jonathan Gannon could shake things up even more upon his arrival.
Arizona has a lot invested in safeties Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson already, plus they used a first-round pick the following year on linebacker Zaven Collins, so perhaps the team would be better served investing resources elsewhere on a roster that needs a ton of help.
PICK NO. 9: CAROLINA PANTHERS: CB C.J. HENDERSON
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 51.1 (176th/213)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.02 (265th)
- Fifth-year option amount:$11,514,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
The Jacksonville Jaguars traded Henderson just a year after using a top-10 pick to draft him, and it’s not hard to see why. Henderson logged a career-high 765 snaps in 2022 but earned a second consecutive sub-50.0 coverage grade.
With Donte Jackson extended last offseason and 2021 No. 8 overall pick Jaycee Horn starting to look like a potential star, it’s hard to envision the team exercising Henderson's option.
PICK NO. 10: CLEVELAND BROWNS: T JEDRICK WILLS JR.
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 64.0 (105/223)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.12 (200th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $14,175,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Wills is the blindside protector on an offensive line that now has three players signed near the top of their respective position markets, not to mention a quality center in Ethan Pocic who agreed to a solid deal to return in free agency.
Wills offers a very high floor as a pass protector, earning three straight grades of 67.9 or better in that facet, and Cleveland should gladly push an extension decision out one more offseason as they spend big money across the rest of their roster.
PICK NO. 11: NEW YORK JETS: T MEKHI BECTON
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 74.6 (44th/223)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.08 (66th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $13,565,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Becton showed so much promise as a rookie, earning a 76.0 pass-blocking grade and a 73.9 run-blocking grade while displaying rare athletic ability. Unfortunately, he’s played a total of 48 snaps over two years since, and the Jets’ continued investment at the tackle position could be a signal they don’t have a ton of long-term faith in Becton.
This may be a tough decision, but especially now that these options are fully guaranteed, we’ll lean toward New York taking its chances here and viewing a potential breakout 2023 from Becton as a good problem to have down the road.
PICK NO. 13: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: T TRISTAN WIRFS
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 88.6 (4th/223)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.98 (2nd)
- Fifth-year option amount: $18,244,000 (2 Pro Bowls)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Wirfs is one of just two players on this list to earn the maximum option amount as a result of multiple Pro Bowl accolades through his first three seasons, and he will soon sign a monster extension. The interesting situation to monitor going forward will be if Wirfs slides over to left tackle in 2023 and maintains his status as one of the NFL's best pass protectors. If he does, he could potentially reset the tackle market near $30 million per year.
PICK NO. 14: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: DI JAVON KINLAW
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 48.7 (154th/192)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.09 (305th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $10,455,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
It already wasn’t looking likely that San Francisco would exercise this option, but it’d be very surprising after they made another massive investment on the interior of their defensive line by signing free agent Javon Hargrave to a four-year, $84 million deal. Ironically, the 49ers acquired the No. 13 overall pick before trading down one spot when they sent interior defender DeForest Buckner to the Indianapolis Colts, with whom he signed a four-year, $84 million contract.
Kinlaw hasn’t played 200 regular-season snaps in either of the past two years, failing to earn a grade of 55.0 yet in his career. He was consistently blown off the line of scrimmage in San Francisco’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC championship game.
PICK NO. 15: DENVER BRONCOS: WR JERRY JEUDY
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 74.1 (58/210)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.40 (57th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $12,987,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Amid speculation the Broncos may look to trade Jeudy, new head coach Sean Payton emphatically told reporters at the NFL owners' meetings that Denver is not interested in moving him. With a few injuries causing Jeudy to miss time early in his career, he has the lowest option amount at just under $13 million, which is low-end No. 2 or high-end No. 3 wide receiver money at this point.
Despite playing within a horrific passing attack in 2022, Jeudy set career highs across the board and showed why he was taken this early back in 2020, earning a 77.9 receiving grade with 987 receiving yards on 68 receptions (14.5 yards per reception). He also posted a strong 2.18 yards per route run, which tied for 15th among wide receivers.
PICK NO. 16: ATLANTA FALCONS: CB A.J. TERRELL
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 73.8 (T-27th/213)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.86 (19th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $12,344,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Terrell was arguably a Pro Bowl snub in 2021 after earning an 85.6 coverage grade that ranked second among cornerbacks, and despite a bit of a dip in 2022, he is unquestionably one of the best young players in the game at shutting down opposing wide receivers. This will be an easy decision for Atlanta, and a new-look defense that added pass-rush help in free agency should hopefully make Terrell’s life easier going forward.
PICK NO. 17: DALLAS COWBOYS: WR CEEDEE LAMB
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 87.6 (10th/210)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 1.12 (8th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $17,991,000 (1 Pro Bowl)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Lamb’s Pro Bowl nod this past season earned him an additional $3.87 million on this option, which was not only great timing but also impressive considering Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush started five games to kick off the 2022 season after Dak Prescott was injured in Week 1.
Dallas’ recent pursuit of wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and eventual trade for Brandin Cooks from the Houston Texans also illustrates how much attention Lamb was receiving in 2022 as the passing game's clear-cut top option.
PICK NO. 18: MIAMI DOLPHINS: T AUSTIN JACKSON
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 50.2 (133rd/223)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.23 (214th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $14,175,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Jackson was a young prospect coming out in 2020 and is still younger than some of the players who will have their names called this April. But after an ankle injury in 2022 limited him to just 84 snaps on the season, it’s hard to see Miami exercising the option on a player they’ve now shuffled from left tackle to left guard to right tackle.
PICK NO. 20: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: EDGE K’LAVON CHAISSON
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 47.5 (179th/189)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.20 (305th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $12,141,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Chaisson has played fewer snaps in each NFL season, logging just 109 in 2022 after the Jaguars drafted Travon Walker at No. 1 overall. Walker and Josh Allen are the present and future at outside linebacker for Jacksonville, and Chaisson no longer appears to be in their long-term plans.
PICK NO. 21: MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR JALEN REAGOR
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 60.7 (160th/210)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.07 (150th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $12,987,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Minnesota controls the rights to this fifth-year option after trading for Reagor last offseason, which they probably regret after he had just eight receptions in 2022.
PICK NO. 22: MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 92.5 (2nd/210)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 1.87 (2nd)
- Fifth-year option amount: $19,743,000 (2 Pro Bowls)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
What will really be interesting to see is whether Jefferson is so transcendent a player that he garners a massive extension after just three seasons. With first-round quarterbacks and players at all positions taken outside of the first round — and thus without fifth-year options — this is common practice. For non-quarterbacks taken in the first round, we generally see teams wait. Jefferson earned the maximum fifth-year option tender amount by making multiple Pro Bowls in his first three seasons, but he’ll likely sign an extension with a per-year average of $10 million or more above this already lofty amount.
Would Minnesota be buying high on Jefferson after he started his career off by rewriting the record books? Or would they be smart to get this deal signed as early as humanly possible before the market grows even further?
PICK NO. 23: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: LB KENNETH MURRAY
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 44.0 (123rd/144)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.14 (270th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $11,727,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
The Chargers traded up with the New England Patriots for this pick, and New England used the return to land safety Kyle Dugger and edge defender Josh Uche. Dugger is one of the best young safeties in the NFL, earning his second consecutive grade above 70.0 in 2022 with a 78.4 mark. Uche is a rotational player thus far in his career, but he amassed 56 quarterback pressures and 11.5 sacks on just 285 pass rush reps in 2022. Murray, on the other hand, has yet to earn a 55.0 grade through three seasons.
The Chargers let linebackers Kyzir White and Drue Tranquill walk in free agency for basically nothing in back-to-back offseasons, so perhaps they’re higher on Murray’s continued growth. That said, we still don’t see this option getting exercised.
PICK NO. 24: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: IOL CESAR RUIZ
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 57.1 (90th/150)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.19 (228th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $14,175,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Ruiz hasn’t been a liability thus far in his NFL career by any means, but he also hasn’t exactly been a huge benefit to the offensive line. Through three seasons, Ruiz hasn’t earned a 65.0 pass-blocking or run-blocking grade in any season. The learning curve for first-round guards is generally a lot flatter than that of tackle prospects, and if he hasn’t shown much already, it’s possible he won’t take a major leap.
The true test here may be how the club feels about Ruiz’s season-ending Lisfranc injury in 2022.
PICK NO. 25: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: WR BRANDON AIYUK
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 83.9 (22nd/210)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.97 (15th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $14,124,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
The more interesting question may be whether the 49ers can find a way to extend Aiyuk next offseason heading into his fifth-year option season with so many big contracts already on the books. However, a handful of their top-paid players may be in the home stretch of their careers by the time Aiyuk’s hypothetical new money truly kicks in in 2025.
Aiyuk’s continued ascent in 2022 was overshadowed by a loaded roster of offensive weapons, as he put up a quiet 1,000-yard, eight-touchdown season.
PICK NO. 26: GREEN BAY PACKERS: QB JORDAN LOVE
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 47.1* (N/A)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.23* (101st)
- Fifth-year option amount: $20,272,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
*157 total snaps
This is a weird one to predict, as one would imagine if the Packers are comfortable trading Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, they’re also very comfortable with Love being their starter going forward. A $20.272 million fully guaranteed fifth-year option is not a huge expenditure to put on your future books for a franchise quarterback, but it could be a bit scary given his lack of NFL reps.
Additionally, Green Bay picked up the fully guaranteed $7.9 million fifth-year option on safety Darnell Savage last offseason and is now regretting that heading into 2023 after he was benched for stretches of the 2022 campaign.
PICK NO. 27: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: LB JORDYN BROOKS
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 52.5 (84th/144)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.58 (16th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $12,722,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Seattle reunited with franchise legend Bobby Wagner on a one-year deal, but make no mistake, Jordyn Brooks is the future at off-ball linebacker for the Seahawks. Brooks’ 61 defensive stops in 2022 were tied for the sixth most among off-ball linebackers, demonstrating his great sideline-to-sideline range in run defense, in addition to his known strength as a downhill player.
Brooks tore his ACL in January, perhaps putting his Week 1 status in question, but if there are no further health concerns, we expect this option to be exercised.
PICK NO. 28: BALTIMORE RAVENS: LB PATRICK QUEEN
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 44.5 (120th/144)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.10 (84th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $12,722,000 (Playtime escalator)
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
The Ravens traded for former Chicago Bears linebacker Roquan Smith at this year’s deadline and subsequently made him the highest-paid player at his position early in the offseason, which makes this an interesting decision. That said, Queen took a quantum leap in 2022, earning a 70.0 overall grade and racking up 24 quarterback pressures and five sacks. He and Smith could be the next dynamic duo over the middle for Baltimore.
PICK NO. 30: MIAMI DOLPHINS: CB NOAH IGBINOGHENE
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 40.1 (209th/213)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.15 (349th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $11,514,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Igbinoghene has struggled to crack the lineup in Miami, and the Dolphins have invested plenty at the position already with a recent extension for Xavien Howard followed by their blockbuster acquisition of Jalen Ramsey.
PICK NO. 32: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: HB CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE
- PFF grade, 2020-22: 74.4 (48nd/108)
- PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.26 (27th)
- Fifth-year option amount: $5,461,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Edwards-Helaire was an afterthought during the Chiefs' latest Super Bowl run, with 2022 seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco and veteran Jerick McKinnon handling the backfield responsibilities. You can make a lot of mistakes elsewhere on your roster when you have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but drafting Edwards-Helaire one pick before the Cincinnati Bengals took wide receiver Tee Higgins and then the Indianapolis Colts took Michael Pittman Jr. is an all-time gaffe.
© 2023 PFF - all rights reserved.