- Bryce Young goes No. 1 overall: The Alabama product will be the culture changer that the Carolina Panthers need.
- Anthony Richardson falls to the eighth overall pick: The Florida QB will immediately be a Tier 1 rushing threat at the quarterback position for the NFL's run-heaviest team.
- Four offensive linemen land in the top-16: Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson Jr., Broderick Jones and Darnell Wright all landed in the first half of Round 1.
Estimated Reading Time: 15 mins
A week out from the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft kicking off, and it’s still an unmitigated mess at the top. The only thing that’s certain this year is that the first round will go in a way absolutely no one predicts.
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS: QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
You won’t find too many evaluators who don’t have Young as QB1 in the class. He truly doesn't have any bad tape to point to from his two seasons as Alabama's starter that would give evaluators pause about his size becoming an issue in the NFL. He’s the culture changer that the Panthers need.
2. DETROIT LIONS (VIA HOU): QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE
The Lions saw how “safe” top-10 picks can be with Jeffrey Okudah. This time they aren’t missing out on their possible Justin Herbert. And if the Texans already have their eyes on next year’s quarterback class it may not take much draft capital to move up from the sixth overall pick. Stroud’s addition gives the Lions the flexibility to move on from Jared Goff’s $32 million cap hits in 2024 to go all-in on a Super Bowl window.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA
The Cardinals get usurped as the trade-up spot in this draft and have to “settle” for a blue-chip edge prospect in Anderson. Valuable positions should be the theme of this Cardinals draft for an utterly depleted roster.
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: QB WILL LEVIS, KENTUCKY
Ballard prioritizes tools more so than any NFL general manager, and he has his choice here of two uber-toolsy prospects. Levis is more battle-tested and NFL-ready than Richardson. He can easily start right away for a roster that needs it.
5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: DI JALEN CARTER, GEORGIA
The Seahawks' leadership has bought itself more than enough public goodwill to take a prospect who’s had the single most adventurous pre-draft process in the class. Ultimately, talent talks for the player who had the single best non-quarterback tape in 2022.
6. HOUSTON TEXANS (VIA DET): EDGE TYREE WILSON, TEXAS TECH
The Texans have needs everywhere and especially along their defensive line. Wilson is a versatile and uniquely tooled edge-rusher who can be a cornerstone type piece for DeMeco Ryans defense.
7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, OREGON
The Raiders will get embarrassed in the AFC West if they don’t address their cornerback room fast. Gonzalez is the best all-around athlete in this corner class with tape that improved every single year of his career.
8. ATLANTA FALCONS: QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA
The Falcons are assembling an all “off the bus” team in Atlanta, and Richardson is the final piece. He’s immediately a Tier 1 rushing threat at the quarterback position for the NFL's run-heaviest team.
9. CHICAGO BEARS: OT PETER SKORONSKI, NORTHWESTERN
Who cares about positional fit on the Bears ever-changing offensive line? They just need talent in front of Justin Fields and that prevails here. Skoronski is the safest offensive line prospect in the class.
10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: EDGE LUKAS VAN NESS, IOWA
Howie Roseman knows how the game is played. He understands that explosive athletes like Van Ness don’t typically last long in addition to how valuable those types of players are in the league. So even if the Iowa edge defender doesn’t fill a “need” for the Eagles, he’s still a long-term value play.
11. TENNESSEE TITANS: EDGE NOLAN SMITH, GEORGIA
Smith is a culture fit for Mike Vrabel’s defense due to his no-nonsense physical play style despite being undersized. Smith had the highest run-defense grade in the draft class over the past two seasons despite weighing only 239 pounds.
12. HOUSTON TEXANS: WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, OHIO STATE
The Texans may not have the quarterback yet, but now, they’ll have a nice bevy of weapons for whoever becomes the guy in Houston. Smith-Njigba is a high-floor slot who can be a focal point of an offense.
13. NEW YORK JETS: OT PARIS JOHNSON JR., OHIO STATE
The Jets hold on to Pick 13 in the Aaron Rodgers trade talks for precisely this reason. They need a right tackle, and Johnson can fill that role.
14. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (VIA NE): OT BRODERICK JONES, GEORGIA
The Steelers see the run on offensive tackles materializing and make a slight move to get their guy. Jones is as physically gifted a tackle as exists in this class, but he’s also likely the most underdeveloped in the top group as well.
15. GREEN BAY PACKERS: TE DALTON KINCAID, UTAH
Kincaid is a special receiving prospect at the tight end position who can be an offense's primary option in a way no receiver on the board here can. His ability to work the middle of the field is something the Packers offense desperately needs.
16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: OT DARNELL WRIGHT, TENNESSEE
Wright is one bad dude who could slot in early at guard for the Commanders and develop into the right tackle of the future. The deep cornerback class allows the Commanders to wait on that position until later in the draft.
17. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (VIA PIT): CB DEVON WITHERSPOON, ILLINOIS
Witherspoon was the most productive corner in man coverage across college football last season, which has been the Patriots' bread and butter under Bill Belichick. Witherspoon’s addition allows the Patriots to get back to that.
18. DETROIT LIONS: CB JOEY PORTER JR., PENN STATE
The Lions traded away Jeffrey Okudah because they knew this class has some press coverage dynamos. Porter is right near the top of that list with his 34-inch arms and high-end play strength.
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: EDGE MYLES MURPHY, CLEMSON
The Bucs just need to reload at valuable positions to get themselves out of the cap-strapped position they are in. Murphy makes a lot of sense as a high-end, toolsy project.
20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: WR ZAY FLOWERS, BOSTON COLLEGE
Flowers is the missing piece in the Seahawks' insanely athletic receiving corps. His dynamism alongside Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf will leave safeties head’s spinning.
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore brings a stronger commitment to running the football than the Chargers have had in recent years. With that comes the best running back prospect we’ve seen in years.
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS: QB HENDON HOOKER, TENNESSEE
The Ravens have to prepare for the potential of life without Lamar Jackson. If Hooker doesn’t tear his ACL, he likely goes higher than this, but the Ravens could be in a spot where Jackson is back for only one season, giving Hooker the ability to redshirt for a season.
23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR JORDAN ADDISON, USC
The Vikings desperately need someone they can trust to separate who’s not named Justin Jefferson. Defenses were able to put too many resources toward stopping him without fear of paying for it. That’s not the case with Addison.
24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: S BRIAN BRANCH, ALABAMA
Branch has slot/deep versatility, and the Jaguars could use both. He’s an immediate impact player for a franchise that's ready to take the next step.
25. NEW YORK GIANTS: C JOE TIPPMANN, WISCONSIN
Tippmann is an athletic center who gives the Giants the makings of something special up front. They’ve seen first-hand in their division how the Cowboys and Eagles offensive lines have given their respective offenses high floors, and they’re looking to join the club.
26. DALLAS COWBOYS: TE MICHAEL MAYER, NOTRE DAME
Mayer can replace what they lost in Dalton Schultz and then some. He’s one of the most NFL-ready tight end prospects you’ll ever see, which is rare to say about a true junior.
27. BUFFALO BILLS: WR QUENTIN JOHNSTON, TCU
This is one of those “we didn’t think he’d be there” picks. It may not be the most glaring need on the Bills roster, but Johnston gives the Bills a three-deep at receiver that can go toe-to-toe with the rest of the AFC.
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS: OT ANTON HARRISON, OKLAHOMA
The Bengals simply have to throw resources at their offensive line, and Harrison is the perfect developmental tackle at this point in the draft. He may not have to start right away, but given the injuries along the Cincinnati offensive line of late, he’ll likely be playing soon.
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: DI ADETOMIWA ADEBAWORE, NORTHWESTERN
Adebawore is the type of long and explosive defensive lineman that Saints general manager Mickey Loomis has prioritized over his tenure. He has outside/inside versatility as well, and the Saints could use help at both.
30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: DT CALIJAH KANCEY, PITTSBURGH
The rich get richer. Kancey’s short arms and size won’t be for everyone, but it will be for a defensive line that just wants to attack at all costs like the Eagles.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: EDGE FELIX ANUDIKE-UZOMAH, KANSAS STATE
The tackle class is likely too depleted at this point to look there so the Chiefs continue to try to bolster their pass-rush long term. Steve Spagnuolo’s “type” for defensive ends looks a lot like Anudike-Uzomah’s physical profile.
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