• Bet Dallas Cowboys D/ST anytime TD (+350) vs Bears: Justin Fields' 13 turnover-worthy plays, 3.44-second time to throw could be problematic against dangerous Dallas pass rush.
• Cowboys have a PFF-best 86.4 pass-rush grade, 79.8 grade in coverage (4th).
• Bet Titans RB Derrick Henry 2+ TDs (+240) at Texans: King Henry should punish PFF's worst-graded run defense in Houston; Titans' pass game is hurting, which should create even more work for Henry.
Last updated: Oct. 28, 12:00 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 5 mins
As we all know by now, touchdown scoring rates are down in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities each week to find the next crop of likely scorers.
Below are five prop bets based on touchdowns that you should consider making as we head into Week 8.
Bet Miami Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki anytime TD (+275) @ Detroit Lions
Bet Gameplan: play to +240
• Inconsistent, But Not Recently: Playing in the game with the highest total on the week at 51.5, Gesicki has been incredibly volatile this season. Before Week 6, Gesicki never topped four targets in a game. Last week, with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup at quarterback, Gesicki didn’t reach the seven targets he had in Week 6. Still, he played the third-most passing-down snaps on the team for a receiver and had a decent average depth of target of 9.3 yards. Fellow tight end Durham Smythe is dealing with an injury and will likely miss this game, giving Gesicki more playing time. He should line up mostly against Lions safety DeShon Elliott, who has only a 59.9 coverage grade across 214 snaps. Caesars' odds at +275 in a good matchup with a high total make this an appetizing bet.
Bet Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD (+100) vs Miami Dolphins
Bet Gameplan: Play to -115
• Back In The Lineup: Detroit appears to be getting its best receiver back in St. Brown, who left early in Week 7 to enter concussion protocol but didn't suffer a brain injury. This is fantastic news. Before the injury, St. Brown scored a touchdown in two of four games and saw nine or more targets in three of those four games. He doesn’t have a massive average depth of target (5.1), but St. Brown averages 9.8 yards per reception, indicating that he can make things happen after the catch. This week, he draws Dolphins cornerback Justin Bethel who’s played in just two games this year and surrendered 54 yards on seven catches and a touchdown last week. Bethel, a player in the NFL since 2012, has played 57 coverage snaps this year — the most he’s played in a season since 2017.
Bet Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams anytime TD (-150) @ New Orleans Saints
Bet Gameplan: Play to -150
• No Lattimore? Domination Incoming: We promise that picking Adams nearly every week isn’t meant to be lazy —he constantly has excellent matchups. Last week, we pegged him to score, but he didn’t. He had eight catches for 95 yards. This week, however, he draws the Saints, who are likely to be again be without cornerback Marson Lattimore. Sure, they still have safety Tyrann Mathieu over the top, who will be ready to assist, but over the past three weeks, he’s posted coverage grades of 47.7, 64.3, and 62.8, respectively. The Saints' defense is getting gashed weekly, and Adams against either Saints cornerback in Alontae Taylor or Paulson Adebo spells danger for a secondary that already has permitted 10 touchdowns this season.
Bet Dallas Cowboys D/ST anytime TD (+350) vs Chicago Bears
Bet Gameplan: Play to +300
• Good Luck Passing, Chicago: The Bears are coming off a stunning victory on “Monday Night Football” on the road against the New England Patriots, 33-14. While the Cowboys aren’t exactly known for their run defense, allowing over 120 yards on the ground per game, their coverage and pass rush units are almost unmatched. In coverage, the team ranks fourth at PFF with a 79.8 grade, and the pass rush is the best in the league with an 86.4 grade. Meanwhile, the Bears rank 26th in pass blocking (57.4), dead-last in passing (48.6), and QB Justin Fields has 13 turnover-worth plays.
• Chicago likely to be in catch-up mode: The Cowboys' offense, with another week of Dak Prescott behind center, will only get better, and the Bears will need to throw to stay in the game unless they somehow take an early lead on the ground. Every throw Fields makes could be Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs’ fourth interception on the year. Furthermore, Fields' time to throw of 3.44 seconds could end in sacks and potential turnovers against a pass rush that’ll get after him. At +350, it’s worth sprinkling half a unit or so.
Bet Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry two TDs (+240) @ Houston Texans
Bet Gameplan: Play to +225
• Plenty of Touches, Great Matchup: As we all know, scoring a single touchdown is hard. But Henry is a player for whom we’ll make an exception and bet on him two score twice. The Titans' passing attack is limited by injuries, and with that, Henry has seen at least 28 carries in the past two games. Tennessee is favored on the road, and Henry goes up against a Texans team that ranks No. 32 at PFF in run defense (36.9). Of all Texans players with at least 100 run-defense snaps, nobody in the front seven has a grade higher than 67.5, and there are two players with grades below 60.0. Henry could easily see over 30 touches in this one.
A $20 BET ON A THREE-LEG PARLAY WITH ST. BROWN anytime TD, ADAMS anytime TD, AND COWBOYS D/ST anytime TD WOULD NET
$300 AT BETMGM
Richard's anytime TD prop bets went 0-4 in Week 7, bringing his season record to 17-32 (-0.73% ROI).
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