• Bet Cincinnati Bengals alternate spreads (-5.5/9.5 and beyond): These two teams have been roughly equal defensively. Offensively, the Bengals have been nearly a point better per drive than the Buccaneers.
• Bet the over on Joe Burrow's passing yards prop: Schematically, the Bucs have dialed up blitzes on close to 40% of their plays, sixth-most in the NF, but Burrow and the Bengals have absolutely carved up the blitz this season.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Last updated: Sunday, Dec. 18, 10:00 am ET
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals alternate spreads (-5.5/9.5 and beyond) and Over on Joe Burrow Passing Yards
Fundamentals:
It is rare at this point in the season for there to be a huge disparity between a team's efficiency and their spread rating. According to the Inpredictable spreads — which source spread lines to create a power ranking — the Bucs are the 10th-best team in the NFL, while the Bengals sit fourth.
But the efficiency tells a far different story:
These two teams have been roughly equal defensively. Offensively, the Bengals have been nearly a point better per drive than the Buccaneers. On the play level, the Bengals are third in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play generated on offense (0.11), while the Buccaneers are 21st (-0.21).
By Week 15, we are no longer dealing with small sample sizes, and the gap between these two teams from a fundamentals perspective suggests that they are not in the same class — despite the market pricing them as such.
But better than just betting the spread on the angle that the line is mispriced, we can combine angles knowing the Bengals like to attack via the pass and should be efficient in doing so.
If they are going to win — and win by a margin — it will likely be through QB Joe Burrow and the passing offense.
For the season, the Bengals pass over expected more than 7% of the time, and they have been remarkably consistent week-to-week, especially since their bye in Week 10.
And total play volume — important for betting passing props — should likewise be on the Bengals side, given that both teams are top=10 in plays this season and the Bucs play at the fastest pace in the NFL.
Despite the Bengals offensive efficiency all season and the uptick in projected play volume, the market is projecting a slight downgrade to the Bengals offense relative to their season-long averages. The Bengals offense is projected for 3 fewer points than their season average, and Burrow 15 fewer passing yards, likely because of their perceived “tough” matchup against the Buccaneers defense.
That is an angle I’d want to fade regardless — buy great offenses to beat good defenses — but even still, following some injuries, the defensive personnel for Tampa Bay is a shell of its early-season self.
With Jamel Dean and Vita Vea likely out this week, the team is full of weak links. Only one defender has earned a PFF grade above average grade at their position.
Schematically, the Bucs have dialed up blitzes on close to 40% of their plays, sixth-most in the NF, but Burrow and the Bengals have absolutely carved up the blitz this season.
Burrow is the league's second-highest-graded quarterback against the blitz, and he is seventh in EPA per dropback against the blitz. There is little the Tampa defense can throw at him by way of pressure, schemed or not — Tampa Bay is ninth-worst in both pressure and quick pressure rate — to slow Burrow and the passing game down.
Bottom line: The Bengals have been dominant on offense all season but are priced for a less-efficient day, likely on account of the Buccaneers defensive success.
As a general rule, buy great offenses to beat good defenses. But in this spot, the Buccaneers defense is hurt and their blitz-happy tendency is one Burrow and the Bengals have carved up.
In an up-tempo game, bet on Burrow and the Bengals passing game to dominate the Buccaneers.
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