• Bet on this AFC East tilt: Undefeated against the spread (ATS) this year following a loss, the New York Jets face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, who are 8-3-2 as seven-plus-point home favorites.
• Key NFC East contest brings multiple betting opportunities: The New York Giants, who are 9-3 ATS this season, will face the division rival Philadelphia Eagles and their 1-4 record ATS versus the NFC East.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
The Week 14 slate is less exciting than Week 13’s offering, but the trends persist. Here is a sampling of both obscure and actionable trends for this week’s marquee games.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -9.5
Total: 44
– The Jets are 4-0 ATS after a loss this season.
– The Jets are 4-2 ATS on the road this season.
– The Jets are 9-3 ATS in the first half this season.
• There are a lot of indicators pointing to the Jets in this spot. New York has been terrific following a loss, and on the road this season. The Jets already knocked off Buffalo once this year, and look to do so again Sunday afternoon.
– Buffalo is 9-3 to the under this season but 3-2 to the over at home.
– Bills QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 8-3-2 ATS as a seven-plus-point home favorite.
– Allen is 13-9-2 ATS against the AFC East.
• Buffalo has been one of the best under teams this season but has bucked this trend at home. Additionally, it hasn't been wise to fade the Bills when they are big favorites. Buffalo has a tendency to beat teams big when it is a big favorite and such a large spread is justified.
– 1 p.m. home favorites are 40-14 SU and 30-21-3 ATS this season.
– 1 p.m. home favorites are 23-3 SU and 18-6-2 ATS since Week 8 this season.
• Home favorites have been scorching hot of late. The particularity of the 1 p.m. window is likely just noise, but notable nonetheless. Look no further than Week 13 for evidence of how well favorites have fared lately (13-1-1 SU).
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Spread: Eagles -7
Total: 45.5
– New York is 9-3 ATS this season
– Giants QB Daniel Jones is 24-14 ATS as an underdog.
– Jones is 11-5 ATS against the NFC East.
– Jones is 9-3 ATS as an underdog in the division.
• This has historically been a good time to back these Giants, and this is a crucial divisional matchup for their season’s outlook. New York covered as a divisional home underdog last week and looks to do so once again.
– Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 1-4 ATS on the road against the NFC East.
– Hurts is 5-10 ATS on the road.
– Hurts is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite.
– Hurts is 16-3 SU as a favorite.
• The Egales win when they are supposed to, but it has not been so easy on the road. Philly is 1-4 ATS on the road this season, with the lone win coming against the Washington Commanders in Week 3. This is looking to be a good time to fade the Eagles.
– Since 2008, the Eagles are 21-7 SU against New York.
– Since 2012, the Eagles and Giants are 8-2 to the over when playing in New York.
• A pair trends blind to the circumstance of each game. The recent history between these two teams is interesting but not actionable.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -3
Total: 38
– 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 10-18-1 ATS as a home favorite.
– Kyle Shanahan is 7-1 ATS in his last eight as a home favorite.
• Shanahan’s 49ers have historically been overvalued at home but not so much of late. Perhaps this is a coincidence, but it is possible that oddsmakers have overcorrected their lines when pricing San Francisco. Regardless, be cautious rushing to bet on either side of the 49ers with rookie QB Brock Purdy slated for his first career start.
– Buccaneers QB Tom Brady is 27-13-1 ATS as a road underdog, and these same games are 25-16 to the under.
– Tom Brady has gone under the game's point total in five straight on the road.
• The future Hall-of-Famer has printed money in this spot, but these Buccaneers are not for the faint of heart. An under bet may be the play with Purdy running the show in San Francisco.
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Total: 52
– The Dolphins are 8-1 S and 6-3 ATS this season when Tua Tagovailoa starts (excluding Week 4 in Cincinnati).
– The Dolphins are 5-1 to the over on the road this season.
– Tagovailoa is 1-3 ATS in primetime.
– Miami is 0-3 ATS after a loss this season.
• With the exception of last week, the Dolphins have been excellent with Tagovailoa under center. The Dolphins will no doubt be a public side on Sunday Night, but be cautious given the team’s reputation following a loss.
– Since 2021, the Chargers are 6-3 ATS as an underdog.
– The Chargers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
– Chargers QB Justin Herbert is 0-4 SU as a home underdog.
– Herbert is 7-4 ATS in primetime.
• The Chargers have been one of the NFL’s greater disappointments this season, but they have a strong history as an underdog. The team is prone to playing (and losing) close games, but this may be an opportune moment to back Herbert.
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Patriots -1
Total: 45
– Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury is 12-19 ATS at home and 7-7 ATS as a home underdog.
– Kingsbury is 3-10 ATS at home from Week 10 on. These same games are 9-4 to the under.
– Kingsbury is 23-11-2 ATS as an underdog.
• Considering how poor Kingsbury’s Cardinals have been at home, the team has been somewhat admirable as a home underdog. In fact, it has been wise to back Kingsbury as an underdog regardless of venue, but the team’s reputation as the season progresses is notable in the worst way.
– Patriots QB Mac Jones is 8-4 to the under on the road and 6-2 to the under as a road favorite.
– Since 2018, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 12-4 ATS on the road against the NFC. These same games are 10-6 to the under.
– Bill Belichick is 12-8 to the under on the road on Monday night.
– Since 2021, Monday night home underdogs are 9-4 ATS, and these same games are 9-3-1 to the under.
• This sampling of trends indicates that a bet on the under would be wise Monday night and conflict in suggesting which side to back ATS. Having said that, not all of these trends should be attributed equal weight when handicapping this game oneself.
– Since 2018, the road team is 15-4-1 ATS on Monday night when facing an out-of-conference opponent and 9-2 ATS since 2020
• To cap off the weekly trends article, we highlight an obscure Monday Night Football trend. Still, be skeptical, as it seems rather random that the road team would have an edge due simply to the games’ circumstances.
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