• Bet 49ers WR Deebo Samuel u4.5 catches: A healthy Samuel in Weeks 1-6 had a 24.3% target share, with an aDot of 5.67. Since Christian McCaffrey's arrival in Week 7, Samuel is at 13.2% and 4.4, respectively.
• Samuel catching four or fewer passes is PFF Greenline's fifth-highest player-prop value Monday (7.8% edge).
• Bet Cardinals 1H moneyline: Niners started sluggish in both 2021 losses (7 total first-half points), and with the market at its highest point of the week, this is the bet to target.
Last updated: Nov. 21, 12:30 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Estadio Azteca hosts “Monday Night football” in a home-away-from-home game for the Arizona Cardinals against NFC West divisional rival San Francisco 49ers.
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GAME LINES
Bet: Cardinals 1H (+245)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +220
• One-sided movement in the spread market: After the preseason number of 1.5 reopened at 5.5 on the lookahead, only to move to +7 to start the week. That wasn’t enough for 49ers backers, who pushed this to +8 early, holding all week until confirmation Monday morning that Colt McCoy will start for the second consecutive week in place of an injured Kyler Murray.
• Consensus spread sits at +10: And should be locked here into kickoff, unless even more injury news breaks poorly for Arizona and DeAndre Hopkins (questionable but reportedly set to play with a hamstring injury) is a surprise scratch. That seems somewhat unlikely, but could be a situation to monitor early and potentially an in-game angle depending on Hopkins spry rating early on.
• PFF Greenline points toward a close game: Although the outlook if the 49ers cover seems obvious, with McCoy struggling and Arizona’s 20th-ranked defense overmatched and surrendering everything to a 49ers offense in a get- right spot.
• Kliff Kingsbury, for all of his warts, recently has counterpunched Kyle Shanahan's 49ers: After starting off as just another Shananan punching bag in 2019, Kingsbury's Cardinals won both games outright last season, holding San Francisco to 17 and 10 points. The Niners were limited to seven combined points in the first halves.
• Similar game script needed for another upset: But a sluggish start for the 49ers could lead to a more difficult test than the current betting market projects. Unfortunately, Kingsbury didn’t keep Murray's status as close to the vest as possible, but the initial opening sequence of plays could still be successful once again for Arizona. If that plays out, the bet to target is the first-half moneyline for Arizona, especially with the market at its highest point of the week.
Bet: Cardinals 1H (+245)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +220
PLAYER PROPS
Bet: 49ers WR Deebo Samuel — Under 4.5 Receptions (+105 BetMGM)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -105
• PFF Greenline's third-highest player prop value in tonight’s game: It may not be that enjoyable, but Deebo Samuel to have four or fewer receptions is setting up as my favorite player prop Monday.
• Small sample size, but Samuel most impacted by the arrival of Christian McCaffrey — especially in passing game: A healthy Samuel in Weeks 1-6 had a 24.3% target share, with an aDot of 5.67. Since McCaffrey arrived in Week 7, Samuel is at 13.2% and 4.4, respectively. His target profile hasn’t changed, but Samuel's volume has been impacted alongside a new elite YAC weapon in the 49ers arsenal.
• A Shanahan wrinkle or two a week further removed from the bye is possible: But it seems his plan will be coordinating looks off each other for Samuel and McCaffrey. If this game turns into a blowout, we should see a vanilla second-half approach and even less volume for Samuel. With the market not fully up to date on the current 49ers target allocation, play the most obvious under, which is Samuel at a plus price. He still hasn’t experienced any sort of correction given McCaffrey’s arrival, and that looks like an oversight by the betting market compared to PFF’s player projections.
DERIVATIVE BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY
DraftKings SGP build (+850)
• Cardinals 1H moneyline
• Highest-scoring half: 2H
• Christian McCaffrey u69.5 rushing yards
• The first-half chop is the most likely starting point for this matchup: If that happens, the variance should be heightened for the Cardinals to win the first half. It seems unlikely they will win a shootout against the 49ers, but the Cardinals could at least cause some concern heading into halftime.
• If that happens, we should easily see a second half that's the higher scoring of the two: And folding this into a same-game parlay on DraftKings with the Cardinals' 1H moneyline offers a reasonable payout given our game expectation. In this scenario, McCaffrey seeing a low volume of rush attempts fits the game script and boosts our payout to a healthy +850 price.
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