NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Picks: Josh Allen, AJ Brown, Brock Purdy

• Josh Allen UNDER 50.5 rushing yards: The Bengals are simply one of the best defenses against quarterback scrambles in the NFL this year, ranking 10th in EPA per play against scrambles.

• A.J. Brown‘s longest reception OVER 25.5 yards: Brown currently ranks second in total yards against man coverage, has a 3.39 yards per route run, and an 89.7 PFF receiving grade against man coverage this year, which is why his longest reception should exceed 25.5 yards. 

• Brock Purdy OVER 1.5 passing TDs: Since Week 12 and including their wild-card game, the 49ers rank second in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, so expect Purdy to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns this weekend.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins

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Josh Allen under 50.5 rushing yards (-115 @ PointsBet) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bet game plan: Play down to 46.5 rushing yards.

• The Bengals are simply one of the best defenses against quarterback scrambles in the NFL this year. So far in 2022, they rank 10th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed to scrambles, fourth in success rate and the second-least amount of QB scramble yards this season. 
• The only QBs to surpass 50 yards against the Bengals this season have been Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. While the Bengals defense has struggled a little bit against designed QB runs (second worst yards per carry allowed), the Bills offense will look to throw first and foremost, as it has a 6.1% pass rate over expected this season.
• The Bengals also primarily play zone defense, meaning they will have a lot of eyes on the QBs at the second and third levels, which should help to limit scrambling yards and keep Allen contained in the pocket.

A.J. Brown‘s longest reception over 25.5 yards (-114 @ Fanduel) vs. New York Giants

Bet game plan: Play down to -120 odds.

• The Giants are one of the blitz-heaviest teams in the NFL and play a lot of man coverage as well. While New York is getting Adoree' Jackson back for this game, there are very few cornerbacks who can slow down Brown. In their Week 14 and 18 matchups, Brown took advantage of CBs Nick McCloud and Rodarius Williams over the top, catching 33- and 37-yard passes.
• The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line will give Hurts time to throw to find Brown on these deep passes, and even if Brown catches it before 25 yards, he’s one of the best receivers in the league at generating yards after catch.
• Brown currently ranks second in total yards against man coverage, has a 3.39 yards per route run, and an 89.7 PFF receiving grade against man coverage this year.

Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing TDs (-130 @ Draftkings) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Bet game plan: Play down to -140 odds.

• Since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo as the San Francisco 49ers QB, Purdy has thrown two or more TDs in every single game. His production and efficiency are very similar to Garoppolo, but Shanahan seems to trust him more in the red zone due to his mobility and ability to perform better under pressure.
• The Cowboys defense is very good, but the 49ers offense at full strength is better. While the Cowboys defense is very aggressive, and that typically works vs average or subpar offenses, no playcaller can leverage defensive aggressiveness better than Kyle Shanahan, and we could see that this weekend in San Francisco.
• Since Week 12 and including their wild-card game, the 49ers rank second in expected points added (EPA) per dropback.

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