• Bet Oklahoma State +7.5 at Oklahoma: The Cowboys are a different offense led by QB Spencer Sanders, whose arsenal is improving with Jaden Bray and Braydon Johnson back in the mix.
• The Sooners and their suspect defense have lost back-to-back games despite being favored.
• Bet UCLA +2.5 vs USC: The Trojans are banged-up on offense but likely will need to score 50 on the road because their defense faces its toughest test to date this season in the Bruins.
Estimated reading time: Nov. 14, 2:00 p.m.
Last updated: 3 mins
The market is harder to predict at this time of year. The edges are getting thinner as more information is known. We looked at some MACtion last week with Miami (Ohio), but the market moved the opposite direction and closed at 2.5. Small CLV through a low value point, so not much harm done, but there was better news across the other bets.
We were well on our way to some good CLV with Arizona State moving from 9 to 7.5, but a respected member of the online betting community posted Washington State -7.5 and moved it back to 9. Southern Miss was mentioned as a mover at +11.5 based on Grayson McCall playing hurt for Coastal Carolina, but the Chanticleers ultimately sidelined him for multiple weeks and the market moved all the way to 4.5. Results-wise, it was not the best week, going 1-2.
Still, there are spots where we can find inefficiencies in the opening lines and capitalize on information that the market either might have missed or isn't yet aware of. Our goal here is obtaining closing line value by finding betting lines early in the week that are likely to move. Consistently beat the line, and the results will follow.
Record: 3-3, -0.3 units, -4.5% ROI, averaging +5.95% CLV.
USC @ UCLA +2.5
• The market is starting to take notice of the UCLA number as I write, but scarcely-available +3 is excellent, and +2.5 is still good. I would expect to see some movement on both as the week progresses.
• USC is struggling with injuries on offense, where WRs Jordan Addison and Mario Williams both are dealing with issues, and star running back Travis Dye is potentially done for the year. That unit could take a slight step back, but the defense is the real concern as the Bruins are the best offense it has faced this season.
• Utah previously held that mantle — and the Utes are the only team to beat USC so far this season — but Arizona and California both recently posted 35+ points against this Trojans defense. It is likely that USC will have to put up 50 points to win on the road, and it'll need to do with a banged-up offense.
Oklahoma State +7.5 @ Oklahoma
• On the opposite end of the injury spectrum is Oklahoma State (+7.5), which has spent the whole season banged up but is starting to get healthy again. Spencer Sanders played the second half of Week 11 against Iowa State and looked to be getting back to full health. This offense is already a completely different unit with him behind center, but Sanders is getting back some offensive weapons at the same time.
• After playing his first snaps in four months Saturday, Jaden Bray will look like his old self the more he plays, and star WR Braydon Johnson also is back . He played 14 snaps with no targets, but his snap count is going to wind up and he will be more involved this week.
• Sooners offense could see an upturn quickly as it faces the suspect defense of Oklahoma, losers as the favorite in back-to-back games. It may be tough to push this through the key number of seven, but we are getting the hook onside and the injury news should all benefit Oklahoma State, leading to a potential late push.
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