• Bet Michigan State +18.5 at Penn State: The Spartans need a win to gain bowl eligibility and have played better than their recent results suggest.
• Michigan State outgained Indiana by 250+ yards and missed a would-be game-winning chip shot at the end of regulation in its meltdown to Indiana; Penn State isn't going to the B1G title game or Rose Bowl this season.
• Bet Southern Miss -3 vs Louisiana-Monroe: With a matchup and motivational advantage, this spread is likely headed further toward the Golden Eagles, creating a lot of CLV.
Last updated: Nov. 21, 1:40 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
The aim of this article since inception has been to find lines that will move in our favor and create closing line value. (CLV). That is something we have done well, but the results have not quite followed yet. We are still operating over a small sample size, so a large amount of variance can be expected. We hit numbers before they moved through key numbers last week, creating a high percentage of CLV, but unfortunately neither bet won
We grabbed UCLA +3 vs USC, which closed at +2.5 (6.7% CLV). The Bruins lost by three, so the bet result was a push. We also bet Oklahoma State +7.5 at Oklahoma. The best odds available at the time was +101, with the market closing at +7 -114 (8.6% CLV). But the Cowboys gave up 28 points in the first quarter and never got back into the game.
This weekly article now runs at a record of 3-4-1 for -1.4 units, but it has averaged 6.38% of CLV per bet. Gathering this much closing line value will lead to good results over a longer period of time.
The final week of the college football regular season is a good spot to find vale on teams that still have something to play for against teams that do not.
Southern Miss (-3) vs Louisiana-Monroe.
• The Golden Eagles have sought a sixth win and bowl eligibility for three weeks without success: Losing to Georgia State, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama. They have one more opportunity, a ULM team with no chance of a bowl game in a matchup that is favorable for the visitors on both sides of the ball. The Golden Eagles have a relatively balanced offense, running the ball well when called upon, and defending the run is not something Louisiana-Monroe does well, ranked bottom 25 in the country in EPA/play over the past six weeks.
• The War Hawks' pass-heavy offense goes up against PFF’s 27th-graded coverage unit: With a matchup and motivational advantage, Southern Miss should move off a key number, creating a high percentage of CLV.
Michigan State (+18.5) @ Penn State
• The Spartans are in a similar situation, needing a win to secure a spot in a bowl game: While they're unlikely to win straight up as 18.5-point underdogs, they will play hard against a Nittany Lions team that can not make it to their conference championship and is unlikely to be in this year’s Rose Bowl.
• Michigan State has played better than recent results suggest: Rutgers completed a Hail Mary to get within six points two weeks ago in a game that was not that close. Last week, MSU led Indiana by two touchdowns and outgained the Hoosiers by 250 yards but threw a pick six before missing a chip-shot field goal to win in regulation. Penn State blew Rutgers out last week but benefited from three defensive or special teams touchdowns, widening the score. There is a lot of potential for Michigan State to backdoor cover a line as big as this.
© 2023 PFF - all rights reserved.