• Bet Los Angeles Rams +7.5 (-110 on BetMGM): Green Bay would be a -3.5 favorite on a neutral field, so bumping all the way up to -7 based on home-field advantage appears to be an overcorrection.
• Bet Baker Mayfield over 188.5 passing yards (-115): Since Rashan Gary’s season-ending injury in Week 9, the Packers rank 29th in pressure rate and have the third-worst pass-rush grade of any team in football. Mayfield's Achilles heel has always been defensive pressure, and if that’s not happening there are enough situations where McVay and Mayfield should be able to take advantage of a thin Packers secondary.
Let’s dive into the best bets for the Monday Night Football clash between the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME LINES
We are blessed with another Baker Mayfield prime-time game just two weeks after the former first overall pick was waived by the Carolina Panthers.
Neither team has much to play for, as Los Angeles is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, while Green Bay sits with a 7% playoff probability according to PFF’s simulation.
It's likely that both teams will evaluate younger options at every position as we head toward the end of the regular season. And this can complicate the handicap, as there are still whispers and expectations that the Packers will turn to quarterback Jordan Love at some point.
Bookmakers seem to be buying into the Rams' side of the equation, as we reached a high point of -8 for the Packers early in the week but have locked into the key number 7 as we move toward kickoff.
PFF Greenline finds value on the Rams at +7, given the low total, as it’s difficult to play anything from the Packers side in what bookmakers project to be a low-scoring affair.
Los Angeles is the most injured team in football, but PFF's betting model has fully baked this into the current spread. Green Bay would be a -3.5 favorite on a neutral field, so bumping all the way up to -7 based on home-field advantage appears to be an overcorrection.
The injury situation for both defenses is considerable, making the over 39.5-point total an appealing betting option, as well. This doesn’t necessarily work in our favor if we want to back the Rams, but there are enough possible game scripts that see this game going over and the Rams covering the spread.
Both PFF Greenline and the play-by-play simulation find agreement on both plays, making this one of the better prime-time matchups to bet on this season.
Monday Night Football Best Bets:
Bet: Los Angeles Rams +7.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
Playable to: -115
Bet: Over 39.5 (-110)
Playable to: Over 40 at -110
Click here to place bets at BetMGM
PLAYER PROPS
BAKER MAYFIELD: OVER 188.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
The handicap with Baker is always straightforward — did he wake up feeling dangerous or not?
Good Baker was on display last week in his first start for the Los Angeles Rams, as he posted his second-best PFF passing grade of the season, while his average depth of target (aDOT) jumped over 2.0 from where he was at in Carolina.
If Sean McVay is able to scheme open receivers downfield, it seems like Mayfield should be able to take advantage, especially against a Packers defensive unit that hasn’t come close to living up to lofty preseason expectations and is badly missing its best pass-rusher.
Since Rashan Gary’s season-ending injury in Week 9, the Packers rank 29th in pressure rate and have the third-worst pass-rush grade of any team in football. Their coverage unit is holding together with a top-10 grade, but Mayfield's Achilles heel has always been defensive pressure, and if that’s not happening there are enough situations where McVay and Mayfield should be able to take advantage of a thin Packers secondary.
With one or two chunk plays hitting early, Mayfield will be well on his way to clearing this relatively low number.
Playable to 190.5 (-110)
VAN JEFFERSON: OVER 17.5 LONGEST RECEPTION (-114)
Jefferson quickly became the focal point of the Rams' passing attack after the injuries to Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson II. He has run a route on almost 95% of dropbacks since Week 11 and leads the team by a wide margin in both target share and air-yards share.
Almost 80% of his targets have come on passes thrown 10 or more yards downfield, and he has a 14.3-yard aDOT through Week 14. He is still very much operating as the deep threat in this offense but is seeing a noticeable uptick in target volume.
Green Bay’s coverage unit continues to hold together well, but this doesn’t look like a shadow situation for Jaire Alexander. Alexander has shadowed just once this season and should continue to see a number of pass routes against the entire trio of Rams pass-catchers. With Mayfield more willing to throw the football downfield than any other Rams quarterback, expect Jefferson to have a number of opportunities to exceed this longest reception prop on Monday night.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ANYTIME TD BETS (pricing per BetMGM compared to PFF's play-by-play simulation)
| Player | BetMGM Price | Implied Probability | Simulation Probability | Value Difference |
| Aaron Jones | -105 | 51.2% | 33.2% | -18.0% |
| Christian Watson | 110 | 47.6% | 43.5% | -4.2% |
| AJ Dillon | 125 | 44.4% | 50.4% | 6.0% |
| Allen Lazard | 130 | 43.5% | 42.2% | -1.2% |
| Cam Akers | 100 | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.7% |
| Romeo Doubs | 225 | 30.8% | 17.5% | -13.3% |
| Kyren Williams | 250 | 28.6% | 16.1% | -12.5% |
| Tyler Higbee | 200 | 33.3% | 34.8% | 1.5% |
| Randall Cobb | 310 | 24.4% | 23.1% | -1.2% |
| Robert Tonyan | 320 | 23.8% | 29.9% | 6.1% |
| Ben Skowronek | 290 | 25.6% | 25.5% | -0.1% |
| Sammy Watkins | 400 | 20.0% | 15.2% | -4.8% |
| Van Jefferson | 350 | 22.2% | 25.4% | 3.2% |
| Tutu Atwell | 500 | 16.7% | 2.9% | -13.7% |
| Baker Mayfield | 400 | 20.0% | 1.3% | -18.7% |
| Brandon Powell | 600 | 14.3% | 13.5% | -0.7% |
| Samori Toure | 700 | 12.5% | 3.2% | -9.3% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1000 | 9.1% | 0.4% | -8.7% |
| Austin Trammell | 1000 | 9.1% | 5.6% | -3.5% |
| Bryce Hopkins | 1000 | 9.1% | 7.3% | -1.8% |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1100 | 8.3% | 6.4% | -1.9% |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1600 | 5.9% | 4.3% | -1.5% |
| Josiah Deguara | 1400 | 6.7% | 6.6% | -0.1% |
© 2023 PFF - all rights reserved.