Data-driven Player Prop Picks for NFL Week 13: Bet Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence and more

• Darius Slayton over 47.5 receiving yards: Slayton has been Giants WR1 for most of the year, and he’s in a great spot to go over this prop number against a Commanders defense that struggles against the deep ball, which is Slayton’s specialty.

• Daniel Carlson over 1.5 field goals made: The Chargers' defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Raiders have an offense built to exploit L.A.'s weaknesses, allowing them to move the ball easily.

• Kirk Cousins under 1.5 passing TDs: The Jets defense is built to stop teams like the Vikings, with Sauce Gardner being a worthy foe for Justin Jefferson, Quinnen Williams taking advantage of a weak Vikings interior OL and CJ Mosely being able to cover TJ Hockenson.

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

BET: Daniel Carlson over 1.5 field goals made (-105 @ BetMGM) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Bet Game plan: Play up to -115

• The Chargers' defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Raiders have an offense built to exploit L.A.'s weaknesses, allowing them to move the ball easily.

• The Chargers do clamp down when teams enter their territory, though, as they’ve allowed 22 made field goals this year, sixth-most in the NFL.

• Carlson made two field goals in his Week 1 matchup with the Raiders, but there were opportunities for more had Derek Carr not turned the ball over as much.

BET: Trevor Lawrence over 13.5 rushing yards (-120 @ Draftkings) vs. Detroit Lions

Bet Gameplan: Play up to 15.5 yards

• The Lions have struggled to prevent QB rushing yards all year, and this trend will likely continue against Trevor Lawrence, another athletic signal-caller. The Lions have allowed 500 rushing yards to quarterbacks on the year and have allowed 19 or more QB rushing yards in five straight games.

• Lawrence’s rushing has been up and down this year, but this matchup will be a good one for him as the Lions play a lot of man coverage. Since man coverage leads to defenders playing with their eyes off the QB, Lawrence should find running room on enough dropbacks to hit the over.

BET: Kirk Cousins under 1.5 passing TDs (-110 @ BetMGM) vs. New York Jets

Bet Gameplan: Play up to -120

• Every major defensive contributor for the Jets this year has performed very well in coverage. They’ve simply been one of the best defenses in the league and are top-six in EPA allowed per pass and dropback-success rate allowed.

• The Jets defense is built to stop teams like the Vikings, with Sauce Gardner being a worthy foe for Justin Jefferson, Quinnen Williams taking advantage of a weak Vikings interior OL and CJ Mosely being able to cover TJ Hockenson.

• The Jets have allowed only two QBs to throw for two or more TDs this season, and that happened back in September when the team was still gelling and going through growing pains.

BET: Darius Slayton over 47.5 receiving yards (-110 @ Draftkings) vs. Washington Commanders

Bet Gameplan: Play up to 50.5 yards

• The Giants are at a disadvantage in the trenches this game. Their offensive line has not been good for weeks now, and as a result, the offense has stagnated because Saquon Barkley isn’t able to generate anything on the ground.

• Slayton has been Giants WR1 for most of the year, and he’s in a great spot to go over this prop number against a Commanders defense that struggles against the deep ball, which is Slayton’s specialty.

• The Commanders have faced the seventh-most deep pass attempts this year and have allowed a 40-plus-yard catch in each of their last five games. A solid alternative to this bet is Slayton’s longest reception over 20.5 yards or Daniel Jones longest completion over 33.5 yards.

Arjun’s data-driven prop bets went 2-2 (-0.1 units) last week, bringing his season record to 22-27 (-5.3 units) on article plays.