• Bet ASU +9 at WSU: Trenton Bourguet's return has sparked the Sun Devils, who have 78 points in their past two games and visit Cougars team flattered by the margin in consecutive weeks, including in 52-14 win over Stanford.
• Bourguet a marked improvement over Emory Jones, averaging almost a full yard more per attempt and 10% higher adjusted completion percentage.
• Bet Miami (OH) +1.5 vs Ohio: Buy low on the RedHawks following a beneficial bye week for starting QB Brett Gabbert to get healthy; sell high on Ohio after big win over Buffalo.
Last updated: Nov. 7, 4:00 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
In an attempt to find Closing Line Value (CLV) over the final few weeks of the college football season, we're using this space to highlight potential reasons that a team might be under- or over-valued by the market.
The first run of this preview was successful in finding CLV in all three highlighted games — and also in finding some winning bets. Michigan State (+17, closed 15.5) and Baylor (+3.5, closed 3) managed to not only achieve CLV and cover their respective spreads but win outright. We also mentioned Connecticut was in a sell-high spot after upsetting Boston College the previous week, but the Huskies (-15.5) managed to win by 17. The market initially moved in our favor and hit +15 but eventually closed at 15.5.
Record: 2-1, +0.9 units, 27.27% ROI.
Miami (OH) +1.5 vs Ohio
· Buy low on RedHawks: We head to the MAC, where Miami (Ohio) is getting 1.5 points at home against Ohio. This is a sell-high spot on Ohio after a big win over Buffalo as an underdog, but it is also a buy-low spot on Miami (Ohio) after an off week providing beneficial time for starting QB Brett Gabbert to get healthy. Miami (Ohio)’s median projections are all lower than their actual strength, forced to play half the season with a backup quarterback.
· Gabbert is not a world beater: But he is a significant upgrade on Aveon Smith (averages 1.2 yards more per pass attempt) and has played the past two weeks at less than 100%. Ohio's offense has been good this year, but the Bobcats have only played two top-100 defenses, scoring a combined 20 points. Now it faces the third, and Miami (Ohio) can limit the Bobcats to a much lower offensive output. Unfortunately for Ohio, its defense is not good enough to limit any team from scoring.
Arizona State +9 @ Washington State
· Arizona State (+9) is another team to keep an eye on after a QB change: The Sun Devils generated nothing under Emory Jones, but the switch to Trenton Bourguet sparked immediate improvement, with 78 points in their past two games combined. Bourguet averages almost a yard more per pass attempt, has a 10% higher adjusted completion percentage and a higher Big-Time-Throw percentage.
· This is also a sell-high spot on Washington State: The Cougars trounced Stanford, 52-14, but the Cardinal lost four fumbles, including three in the first half, with one returned for a touchdown. Stanford was the better team in that game and deserved the win. But Washington State was flattered by the margin for the second week in a row, after keeping it close against Utah despite being out-gained by close to 100 yards by a Utes offense down its starting QB.
Southern Miss +11.5 @ Coastal Carolina
· The theme of this article is quarterbacks, and Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina is playing hurt right now: That creates opportunities for Southern Miss (+11.5), which was blown out by Georgia State last week. But the lower down the football ladder you go, the higher variance the performances are, and you would be hard pushed to argue that was a true showing of the Golden Eagles.
· Excellent buy-low spot for an otherwise excellent Southern Miss defense: On the other hand, Coastal Carolina has a below average defense, coupled with a quarterback playing below his perceived level and they have not been blowing teams out with four wins decided by one score. Both teams operate at a slow pace which leads to lower totals. Southern Miss can keep this close.
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