- UTSA favorites: UTSA picked up a 31-27 victory the last time these two teams met back in October, but they are nine-point favorites this time around.
- Bet the over on Austin Aune’s passing yardage total: The North Texas QB threw for over 300 yards in the October matchup and appears poised to do so again.
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Championship weekend has arrived in college football, and while the total and spread betting lines at this stage of the season are difficult to beat long-term, we are going to take a dive into one of Friday night’s game, taking a look at some key stats and matchups for some championship fixtures in an attempt try to identify any remaining value in the main markets or in terms of prop bets.
Conference USA Championship – North Texas vs. UTSA
These two teams played back in October, when UTSA picked up a 31-27 victory in which five touchdowns came in the fourth quarter. For reference, the total was 73 and the spread was UTSA -9 at home.
The spread this week remains the same, but the total has dropped 3.5 points to 69.5. The fourth-quarter explosions that occurred in their previous meeting could spread out over the whole game this time, as both offenses ranked top 15 in EPA/play over the last six weeks.
UTSA’s defensive numbers look great over that same period, but they have played declining teams in Rice and Louisiana Tech as well as lowly Florida International. They did, however, give up over 500 yards of offense to UAB before that and most recently 498 yards to UTEP last week.
North Texas has a deep offense with three running backs who have all accumulated over 550 rushing yards this season and six wide receivers who have totaled at least 300 yards. UTSA plays fast and possesses an effective offense, so this contest could put up numbers.
I lean toward North Texas getting a nine-point head start while the games goes over the 69.5-point total, but my favorite bet here is taking the over on North Texas QB Austin Aune’s passing yardage total. He posted over 300 yards in the recent matchup between these teams because UTSA did an excellent job at stuffing the run, which forced UNT to attack through the air. In a game with two score underdogs and a high total in a fast-paced game, a passing total in the mid-low 200s for a team that passes at a 50% rate has very little downside.
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