Data-driven RB prop picks for Week 14: Jamaal Williams, Tony Pollard and more

• Bet Jamaal Williams u50.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 48.5): Williams is among the worst running backs in rushing yards over expected this season.

• Bet Tony Pollard o68.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 70.5): Explosive rushes are the quickest way to go over on a rushing yardage prop, and Pollard is the NFL's best in that regard.

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Estimated reading time: 2 mins

Last updated: Saturday, Dec. 10 at 10 p.m. ET

In the past eight weeks, we've gone 21-12 (+6.3 units) on our running back prop bets using rushing yards over expected (RYOE). This is because 22 of the 33 bets were under for rushing yards, which cash more regularly than overs, as PFF's Ben Brown detailed in his midseason player prop review.

Here, we'll go with two unders and one over to maximize profits, but the over bet should be placed with more caution than the unders.

BET: Detroit Lions RB Jamaal Williams Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 48.5)

• Williams Hasn’t Been Effective: Williams ranks 32nd out of 39 qualifying running backs in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per carry this season. He is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry when expected to get 4.4, showing his ineffectiveness.

BET: Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 70.5)

• Pollard is the Most Explosive Rusher: Among qualifying running backs, Pollard tops the charts with 16.7% of his rushes this season going over five rushing yards over expected. Explosive rushes are the quickest way to go over on a rushing yardage prop.

• The Houston Texans Give up Explosives: On the other side of things, the Texans have given up 58 rushes of 10-plus yards this season, the most of any team in the league and 10 more than the second-place Chicago Bears.

BET: Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 23.5)

• The Cincinnati Bengals‘ Defense Stops the Run: The Bengals' defense has given up 73 rushing yards to quarterbacks scrambling this year. That ranks second-best in the league, and they held Patrick Mahomes under just last week.

• Watson Went Under in His First Game: In his first game back from his suspension, Watson rushed for only 21 yards against a Texans defense that gives up more scramble yards than the Bengals do.

Rushing yards over expected was created using an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). The most important factor in determining expected rushing yards is the number of positively graded and negatively graded blocks on a play. The importance is followed by yards from the end zone, number of box defenders, defensive strength, seconds left in the half and score differential.

This model can predict 22% of the variance in actual rushing yards and has a year-to-year correlation of 0.21. A shiny app to explore RYOE for each player can be found here.