• Bet Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney anytime TD at Chargers: With Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster down, bet on the upside of Toney, who last week caught his first touchdown as a Chief in his second game.
• Bet Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. anytime TD at Texans: The rookie handled a career-high 26 carries vs the Eagles, amassing up 86 yards and a touchdown.
• Expect a more efficient outing by Robinson against a horrible Houston run defense devoid of one qualifying player with a PFF run-defense grade above 60.7.
Last updated: Nov. 18, 5:10 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
The weeks are winding down in the NFL season, and numerous teams are still in the hunt for a playoff spot.
However, with this being Week 11, the wins need to start happening sooner rather than later.
What players will score touchdowns this week to help their teams get those wins?
Let’s take a look.
Bet: Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs anytime TD (+105) vs Cleveland Browns
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -110
• A plus price? We’ll take it: Diggs has 96 targets this season and has gone under double digits just three times. In Week 10, Diggs had 16 targets, including overtime, despite Josh Allen’s elbow injury. He hasn’t scored since Week 8, but Diggs draws a matchup with Browns cornerback Denzel Ward, who’s allowing a 66.7% reception rate. Ward was solid against the Miami Dolphins, but previously he had allowed 75 or more yards in every game he’s played 30 or more coverage snaps.
Bet: Carolina Panthers WR Terrace Marshall Jr. anytime TD +330 vs Baltimore Ravens
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +300
• Great price, massive underdog: The Panthers are starting Baker Mayfield on the road against the Ravens. The Ravens are nearly two-TD home favorites, putting the Panthers in a position to have to throw. In relief of P.J. Walker in Week 9, Mayfield connected with Marshall for a touchdown. Baltimore allows nearly 260 passing yards per game and closer to 270 at home. Marshall's aDOT of 11.1 on the season correlates well to Mayfield’s success (albeit limited) downfield (72.0 passing grade on throws 20+ yards and three touchdowns).
Bet: Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields anytime TD +100 @ Atlanta Falcons
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -105
• Riding the hot streak: The Falcons have allowed 164 rushing yards per game over their past three and nearly 128 at home this season. Fields has been unstoppable, scoring five touchdowns over his past four games and averaging nearly nine designed runs per game. Fields may not get 147 or 178 rushing yards again, but this offense has committed to letting him run. Inside of the Falcons dome, expect another great day for Fields using his legs.
Bet: Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. anytime TD (+105) @ Houston Texans
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +100
• Robinson commanding backfield: The Texans are one of the worst run defense units in the league, with a 37.6 run defense grade, and allow over 180 rushing yards per game. Over their past three, they’ve allowed a staggering 216 yards per outing. Robinson Jr. had a season-high 26 carries last week against the Philadelphia Eagles and had 86 yards and a touchdown. He wasn’t the most efficient in that matchup against a more formidable Eagles front, but he’ll get plenty more room to run against a front seven that doesn’t have a single player with a run defense grade higher than 60.7 that’s played more than 28 snaps on defense.
Bet: Kanas City Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney anytime TD (+180) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +120
• Toney time: Mecole Hardman was sent to injured reserve, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is also out in this game. The Chiefs are 5.5-point road favorites, and Toney is gearing up as a top target for Patrick Mahomes. Toney caught four of five targets for 57 yards and scored while showing off his athleticism last week in his second game with his new team. The Chiefs will look to run the ball Sunday night, but look for Toney to be one of the beneficiaries of Mahomes’ passing touchdowns — our prop betting tool gives the over 2.5 touchdowns for Mahomes a 19.2% edge — currently our biggest in Week 11.
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