• Bet Panthers WR D.J. Moore anytime TD (+225) at Bengals: Bet on Moore to find the end zone in a third consecutive game — and keep his helmet on this time.
• Without CB1 Chidobe Awuzie, Cincinnati will rely on Eli Apple (39.5 coverage grade) and second-rounder Cam Taylor-Britt (47.8 on only 38 snaps). Advantage: Moore.
• Bet Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill anytime TD (+100) at Bears: Did you know the NFL's leading receiver only has caught a touchdown in one game this season? That changes Sunday at Soldier Field.
Last updated: Nov. 4, 11:30 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Week 9 of the NFL season is here, and with six teams on bye, we have lesser to scout for when determining who will score a touchdown.
No worries, though—we have five picks below that have a plus price right now at various online sportsbooks.
Let’s take a look.
Bet: Carolina Panthers WR D.J. Moore anytime TD (+225) @ Cincinnati Bengals
• McCaffrey Down, Moore Up: When a player as special as Christian McCaffrey is traded, you’d probably expect the rest of the offense to struggle, but that hasn’t been the case for the Panthers. They scored 21 in Week 7 and 34 in Week 8, and a big part of that is Moore, who has touchdowns and double-digit targets in both games since McCaffrey was traded to the San Francisco 49ers.
• The Bengals lost cornerback Chidobe Awuzie for the season last week with a torn ACL: And he was their best cornerback by far. Now, Moore potentially matches up against Eli Apple (39.5 coverage grade) and second-round rookie Cam Taylor-Britt (47.8 coverage grade across 38 snaps). Taylor-Britt’s sample is small, but playing corner in the NFL as a rookie is tricky, never mind covering Moore. The Panthers are significant underdogs, so expect P.J. Walker to keep passing — and for Moore to keep benefiting.
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +140
Bet: Green Bay Packers TE Robert Tonyan anytime TD (+220) @ Detroit Lions
• OPI Revenge: Last week, we had Tonyan on this list (where readers also found Mike Gesicki TD, Derrick Henry two TDs and Cowboys D/ST anytime TD), and to be honest, we feel a bit cheated. Tonyan should’ve had a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills Sunday night, but it was called back on a questionable offensive pass interference call.
• The Packers are road favorites this week: When Tonyan gets a great matchup against Lions safety Juju Hughes, per PFF's TE fantasy matchup tool. Seeing 10 targets over the past two games, Tonyan is one of Rodgers' more trusted weapons, especially with injuries continuing to ravage Green Bay's WR corps.
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +200
Bet: Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill anytime TD (+100) @ Chicago Bears
• Tons of Yards, TD Incoming: Getting the +100 price at DraftKings made this bet enticing, but did you know Hill hasn’t scored a touchdown in any game this year except Week 2 against the Ravens? That’s shocking, and against the Bears, that should change. Hill has seen double-digit targets this season in all but two games — both of which included QB Tua Tagovailoa exiting the game for a period of time or being out altogether.
• Hill has 31-437 receiving since Week 6: The Bears have solid players in the secondary, but this Dolphins offense is unique with two phenomenal deep threats. Take advantage of this plus-price, as it might be one of the only times this season we see it.
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -105
Bet: Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (+120) vs Packers
• Hockenson Dealt At The Deadline: Going back to the well on another pick from last week here. St. Brown saw his most targets in a game (9) since Week 3 (also 9). He’s dealt with injuries this year, but the second-year wide receiver has a solid individual matchup with TE T.J. Hockenson shipped out of town at the trade deadline.
• Working out of the slot: St. Brown will see plenty of Rasul Douglas, who in addition to allowing a touchdown last week, is allowing a 69.7 reception percentage. Without Hockenson in the lineup and with the Lions as home favorites, St. Brown is the unquestioned No. 1 option and should see a plethora of targets.
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +100
Bet: Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins anytime TD (+105) vs Seattle Seahawks
• Unstoppable: Since returning from his suspension in Week 7, Hopkins has been Murray’s go-to target, with 27 targets, including 22 receptions. Hopkins has gone over 100 yards in both games and scored last week on a fantastic one-handed grab.
• Rookie test: Nuk will match up plenty against DROY candidate Tariq Woolen, who’s played well this year but hasn’t been as fantastic the past two weeks, when he's failed to post a coverage grade higher than 65.2. Woolen gave up a touchdown against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago among five receptions on nine targets. Hopkins is undoubtedly this rookie’s most challenging matchup yet, and at +105, you need to bet on this.
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -110
Richard's anytime TD bets went 3-2 in Week 8, bringing his season record in this space to 20-35 (2.19% ROI).
© 2023 PFF - all rights reserved.