• Top two-team, six-point teaser in Week 12: Broncos +3.5 at Panthers + Raiders +9.5 at Seahawks (-120)
• Denver defense ranks 5th in NFL in success rate: And allows the 3rd-fewest points, against Sam Darnold: Advantage, Broncos.
• Raiders score on 44.8% of offensive drives: Trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills; Las Vegas has lost only once by 7+ points.
Last updated: Nov. 23, 2:00 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
With the sports betting industry evolving and gaining popularity, so is the way you can make NFL wagers. The days of just betting on sides and totals are over.
One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points like 6, 6.5 or 7 in a direction that lowers risk.
Teaser Tips to Follow
• Never Cross over 0
• Tease through key numbers 3 & 7
• Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or less.
Here are four teaser legs I like, along with my favorite two-team, six-point teaser in Week 12:
Top 2-team, six-point teaser: Broncos +3.5 at Panthers / Raiders +9.5 at Seahawks (-120)
Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 (from +3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
• PFF Greenline is showing a small 0.7% edge on the Raiders +3.5 and on the Moneyline (+158): So we are getting great value at +9.5 in a potential teaser leg.
• Raiders have only lost one game by more than seven points: Last season the Raiders were 7-2 in one score games, this season they are 1-6. They have only lost one game by more than seven points.
• Las Vegas is 3rd in successful offensive drive percentage: Scoring on 44.8% of their drives, which trails only the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, respectively. Despite their poor record, the Raiders' offense has moved the ball and put up points, ranked 15th or better in EPA/play and success rate.
Denver Broncos +3.5 (from -2.5) @ Carolina Panthers
• Sam Darnold's 2022 starting debut: Unfortunately for him, it's against one the best defenses in the league.
• Denver is 5th in success rate on defense, allowing the 3rd-fewest points per game: Opponents are only scoring on 32.8% of their drives, 11th best in the NFL.
• PFF Greenline already finds a 4.3% edge on Denver -2.5: So at +3.5, we're getting great value. Enough to choose this untraditional teaser option passing through 0, as we're getting Denver past the key number 3.
New England Patriots +8.5 (from +2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
• Market expecting a low-scoring battle — and I agree: While they're in a bounce-back spot after an embarrassing 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Vikings host one of the NFL's best defenses.
• New England is No. 1 in success rate and EPA on defense: On top of that, the Patriots only allow 16.9 points per game, the 2nd-lowest in the league.
• Fun Fact: Outside of their Week 1 win against the Green Packers, the Vikings have not won a game by more than eight points.
Philadelphia Eagles from -1 (from -7) vs Green Bay Packers
• Eagles Kryptonite?: After allowing at least 140 rushing yards to their past three opponents, the Eagles' PFF run defense grade has dropped to 67.4 (9th). They welcome the NFL's 7th-leading rushing in Aaron Jones and a Packers' run game that grades out 4th in PFF grade (90.4).
• Green Bay is 1-4 on the road, averaging only 17 points in five games away from Lambeau Field: While this may be a closer game than the 7-point spread suggests, I like the value we are getting with the Eagles -1 at home.
Bet: Broncos +3.5 at Panthers / Raiders +9.5 at Seahawks (-120)
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